T639和EC模式對內蒙古主要天氣系統的預報性能檢驗
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中國氣象局預報員專項項目(CMAYBY2013 012)資助


Verification and Assessment of Forecasting Performance of General Circulation Systems in Inner Mongolia by T639 and EC Model Products
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    摘要:

    利用2012年T639和EC模式500 hPa高度場預報產品及ECMWF客觀再分析資料,采用天氣學檢驗方法,對內蒙古主要天氣影響系統之西風槽、貝加爾湖冷渦、蒙古冷渦和東北冷渦數值產品的預報性能進行檢驗。檢驗結果表明:T639和EC模式產品對內蒙古影響系統具有較好的預報性能,36 h內的預報性能更為顯著。EC模式產品預報準確率優于T639模式產品,但對內蒙古東部地區影響系統的預報穩定性相對較差。T639模式產品在36 h的預報能力比較高,對影響系統的生成時間、槽線位置、移動速度及中心強度4項檢驗指標預報準確率均在80%以上。EC模式預報產品,48 h內對影響系統4項檢驗指標預報準確率均在80%以上。隨著預報時效延長,T639和EC模式產品預報能力均有所下降。兩套模式產品與實況相關系數空間分布在各時效均具有顯著的相關關系,并且對應相關系數空間分布,T639和EC模式產品標準差的大值中心與相關系數的低值中心基本一致。

    Abstract:

    Based on T639 and EC model data and ECMWF reanalysis data over 500 hPa in 2012, the forecast products are validated by the synoptic verification method in terms of the starting time, moving velocity, trough line position, and central intensity of the weather systems. The results show that the forecasting of synoptic systems in Inner Mongolia is relatively accurate based on T639 and EC models, especially for 36 hour forecasting. The accuracy of EC model forecast products is better than that of the T639 model, but the stability of EC model products is poorer in the eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The accuracy of T639 model products is greater than 80% in the starting time, moving velocity, trough line position, and central intensity of the systems for 36 hour forecasting. The accuracy of EC model products is higher than that of T639 model products, with the accuracy being greater than 80% in four test indexes for 48 hour forecasting. The prediction capabilities of both T639 and EC model products decrease with the increasing of lead time. There is a significantly correlation between forecast and observation for both models, corresponding well with the distribution of correlation coefficients, and the high value centers of standard deviation are in agreement with the low value centers of correlation coefficient.

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荀學義,孟雪峰,王學強,胡英華,金迎春,趙斐,拓彥軍,張旭. T639和EC模式對內蒙古主要天氣系統的預報性能檢驗[J].氣象科技,2014,42(5):832~838

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  • 收稿日期:2013-09-06
  • 定稿日期:2013-12-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-10-30
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