基于層次分析法的大連區域雷災易損性評價
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遼寧省氣象局課題“遼寧省雷電災害風險評估業務系統”項目資助


AHP Based Risk Assessment of Regional Lightning Disasters
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    摘要:

    根據大連地區近6年雷電災害資料,40年雷暴資料,以大連地理、氣候環境為背景,通過計算指標權重,采用層次分析法對大連區域雷災易損性進行評價,并通過一致性檢驗。結果顯示,金州新區屬于極高風險區域,瓦房店屬于高風險區域,大連、普蘭店、莊河屬于低風險區域,旅順屬于極低風險區域。結果表明雷災區域易損性分析不僅取決于樣本區域的自然雷暴日,還與樣本區域的經濟發展情況、人口密度、歷史災害等多方面因素有關,各指標影響權重也并非相同。采用層次分析法進行區域雷災評價研究,能夠有效減少人為因素,為防雷減災提供了依據。

    Abstract:

    By means of lightning disaster data for nearly six years and annual thunderstorm data for 40 years, considering the background of the geographical environment and climate, the vulnerability of thunder disasters in Dalian is assessed, in which six indicators are selected, calculated by using AHP, and passed the significance test. The results show that Jinzhou has the highest risk; Wafangdian is the second, Dalian, Pulandian, and Zhuanghe are the next; Lushun has relatively low risk. It is showed that the risk assessment for regional lightning disasters is not only depended on the number of thunder storm days, but also on the economic development, the density of population, the history of disasters, as well as the weights of different indexes. The assessment analysis of regional thunder storm disasters with AHP can reduce the impact of man induced factors effectively.The results provide a basis for lightning protection and disaster reduction.

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王赟,王洪祥,滿永恒.基于層次分析法的大連區域雷災易損性評價[J].氣象科技,2014,42(4):702~706

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  • 收稿日期:2013-07-11
  • 定稿日期:2014-01-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-08-26
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