秦巴谷地夏季降水的時空特征分析
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201306005)、973國家重點基礎研究發展計劃(2012CB417202)和四川省科技項目(2013JY0063)資助


Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Summer Precipitation in Qinling and Daba Valley
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    摘要:

    利用安康和漢中地區21個測站1963—2012年逐日降水和氣溫資料以及統計診斷方法,分析了秦巴谷地年均氣溫和降水以及季節降水的時空變化特征,結果表明:秦巴谷地的年均氣溫呈明顯線性增暖趨勢,而年降水量的線性變化趨勢不明顯;在降水量較為集中的春夏秋3季中,春秋季降水量呈減小的趨勢,而夏季的降水量卻呈增多的趨勢,尤其是近10年來降水量增多趨勢明顯。利用REOF方法將秦巴谷地夏季降水量分解為3個主要空間模態,即西部、東部和中部型,其中西部型和東部型是秦巴谷地夏季降水分布最敏感的區域類型。對秦巴山區2010年7月17—18日一次典型強降水天氣過程的分析表明,西部型和東部型可能是秦巴地區的主要典型降雨型,對于秦巴地區降水規律認識和天氣預報及防災減災有著重要意義。

    Abstract:

    On the basis of the statistical diagnostic analysis method and the daily mean temperature and precipitation of 21 meteorological observation stations in the Ankang and Hanzhong from 1963 to 2012, a series of analysis is made of the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the annual mean temperature and precipitation, as well as seasonal mean rainfall in the Qinling and Daba valley. Results indicate that the annual mean temperature of the Qinling Daba valley significantly increased, and the change trend of the annual total precipitation of the Qinling Daba valley was not obvious; the precipitation in spring and autumn decreased, but the precipitation in summer showed an increasing trend. At the same time, using the REOF method, the summer precipitation in the Qinling Daba valley is divided into three main mode (rainfall pattern): western, eastern, and central, and the western, and the eastern types of summer precipitation were more sensitive. The analysis of a typical strong precipitation processes shows that the western and the eastern types of summer precipitation are the typical rainfall patterns and have great significance to precipitation forecasting and disaster prevention service.

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朱梅,肖天貴,余興,徐小紅.秦巴谷地夏季降水的時空特征分析[J].氣象科技,2014,42(4):663~670

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  • 收稿日期:2013-07-10
  • 定稿日期:2014-02-12
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-08-26
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