北京地區預報失誤的兩次降雪過程分析
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2011年度城市氣象科學研究基金(IUMKY&UMRF201105)、國家支撐項目“城市群高影響天氣的特征和成因分析”(2008BAC37B01)、公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201006010)資助


Analysis of Unsuccessful Forecasting for Two Snowfall Processes in Beijing
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    摘要:

    利用常規資料、NCEP1°×1°再分析資料及多種新型探測資料,對北京地區2011年深秋初冬季節預報接連失誤的11月29日和12月2日兩次降雪天氣過程進行了分析。結果表明:①11月29日,在地面偏東風配合倒槽的有利形勢下北京未出現降雪的重要原因之一是偏東風為干冷性質,且層次深厚,北京邊界層濕度條件差。對流層低層冷空氣快速南壓填塞倒槽是預報出現失誤的另一重要原因。②12月2日降雪過程,925 hPa的切變線和地面鋒面為邊界層的水汽輻合抬升提供了動力條件,對流層中下層的水汽輸送為降雪提供了水汽條件。③對比研究表明,北京地區冬季降雪預報要特別關注邊界層濕度的變化,當邊界層內水汽條件較差時,即使中高層有明顯的天氣系統也不易產生降雪。當邊界層濕度條件好,并配合有邊界層輻合系統時,即便對流層中層沒有明顯天氣系統,也會產生降雪。

    Abstract:

    Unsuccessful forecasting for two snowfall processes in Beijing in 2011 is analyzed by using a variety of high spatial temporal resolution observation data, NCEP1°×1°analysis data, and conventional observation data. The result shows: (1) On 29 November 2011, one of the most important reasons that there was no snow in Beijing is that the east winds in Beijing were dry and cold in a deep layer, and the boundary layer moisture condition was unfavorable. The cold air moved southward, leading to a filling pressure trough in the lower troposphere, which is another important reason for the fault prediction. (2) In the process of snowfall on 2 December 2011, the front and 925 hPa shear line provided dynamic condition for uplifting boundary layer water vapor convergence, and the lower troposphere water vapor transmission provided the moisture condition for snow. (3) Comparative analysis shows that more attention should be paid to water vapor change in the boundary layer in snow forecasting in Beijing. It hardly snows even if there is obviously favorable weather pattern but poor water vapor condition in the boundary layer; it probably snows if there is good moisture condition and convergence in the boundary layer, even if there were no favorable weather systems in the middle troposphere.

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何娜,孫繼松,王國榮,盧冰,柳克.北京地區預報失誤的兩次降雪過程分析[J].氣象科技,2014,42(3):488~495

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  • 收稿日期:2013-04-18
  • 定稿日期:2013-11-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-06-30
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