基于數值預報及上級指導產品的本地氣溫MOS預報方法
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湖北省氣象局科技發展基金重點項目“恩施自治州旅游氣象預報服務方法研究”(2012Z04)資助


Local Temperature MOS Forecast Method Based on Numerical Forecast Products and Superior Guidance
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    摘要:

    利用恩施基準站2008—2011年地面實測資料、數值預報產品、上級臺站指導產品,采用M(數值模式預報)、E(天氣學經驗)、D(診斷分析)相結合的方法(簡稱MED),從氣溫變化的影響因素如大氣穩定度、溫度平流、水汽條件等設計具有物理意義的預報因子。或根據需要進行因子的組合疊加利用,并將指導產品直接作為預報因子。利用常規統計預報方法(逐步回歸),將高、低溫實況作為預報對象來建立地方氣溫預報模式。結果表明:將天空狀況進行分型后建立地方氣溫MOS預報模型,并對應高低溫一般出現時間段來選取數值預報產品因子進行預報,對本地氣溫預報質量的提高有積極的意義;模型建立過程中,綜合采用了MED相結合的方法,并應用了數值預報再加工因子,考慮了天氣系統變化對氣溫的影響,增強了數值預報的解釋應用能力;參考客觀數值模式產品、上級業務部門指導產品相結合的綜合MOS預報方法,建立地方氣溫MOS預報是提高本地天氣預報準確率的有效嘗試。檢驗結果也表明,本地氣溫MOS預報效果較好,明顯高于指導預報,已較好應用于實際業務中。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observed meteorological data of Enshi Station from 2008 to 2011, numerical forecast products, and superior station guidance, by means of the combined method of M (numerical model forecast), E (learning experience of weather), D (diagnostic analysis), the predictors with atmospheric physics significance are designed from the aspect of the influencing factors of temperature changes, such as the atmospheric stability, temperature advection, water vapor conditions, etc.; or a combination of factors according to the needs is considered, and the superior guidance products are used as predictors directly. Using the conventional statistical forecast method (stepwise regression), taking high and low temperature as predictands, the local temperature prediction model is established considering the direct factors influencing the atmospheric temperature. The local temperature MOS forecast model is established after sky condition classification, and the numerical forecast products are selected corresponding to the appearing time of high and low temperature, which is of significance to the quality improvement of local temperature forecasting. During the model building, the combined method and reprocessed numerical forecast factors are used, and the influence of weather variation on air temperature is considered, so the application and interpretation capability of numerical forecast products is enhanced. The comprehensive MOS forecasting referring to the objective numerical model products and superior guidance products is an attempt to improve the local weather forecast accuracy effectively. Test results also show that the local temperature MOS forecast method performed well, with the effectiveness significantly better than guidance forecasting.

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羅菊英,周建山,閆永財.基于數值預報及上級指導產品的本地氣溫MOS預報方法[J].氣象科技,2014,42(3):443~450

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  • 收稿日期:2013-04-05
  • 定稿日期:2014-01-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-06-30
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