氣象干旱綜合監測指數在湖北的本地化應用及其適用性分析
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2014年業務建設項目“氣候監測預測業務基礎平臺建設與改進”資助


Modification and Applicability Evaluation of Comprehensive Monitoring Index of Meteorological Drought in Hubei Province
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    摘要:

    在對氣象干旱綜合監測指數(IMCI)特點理論分析基礎上,結合湖北省干旱特點,對IMCI在湖北省應用進行了參數修訂。通過與干旱監測業務中使用的綜合氣象干旱指數(ICI)在干旱統計特征、典型干旱過程診斷能力方面的對比分析,評估了IMCI指數在湖北省的適用性。結果表明:IMCI未改變ICI干旱監測的總體結論,但在干旱演變過程方面較ICI平緩,且對持續時間較長的大旱過程刻畫較好。修訂后的IMCIHB有效糾正了IMCINCC對旱情發生、發展及緩解過程反應過于遲鈍、旱情監測偏重的不足,同時相對于ICINCC2對降水過于敏感又有所改善。然而,IMCINCC和IMCIHB依然存在冬季對微量降水過于敏感及旱情不連續發展的不足。干旱指數在特定區域應用時進行適當的修訂和適用性檢驗是必要的,研究結果可為IMCI在國內其他地區應用的修訂提供參考。

    Abstract:

    Based on the theoretical analysis of the characteristics of the comprehensive monitoring index of meteorological drought (IMCI), together with drought characteristics in Hubei Province, the IMCI proposed by the National Climate Center (NCC) is modified for use in Hubei Province, and then tested in the aspects of the statistic characteristics of droughts and the diagnosis capability of typical drought processes through comparing with the commonly used compound meteorological drought index (ICI). Results show that there is no significant difference between IMCI and ICI in the general conclusion of drought monitoring, but IMCI shows a slower rate than ICI in drought development, and IMCI performs better at characterizing long term severe droughts. In addition, the modified IMCI has effectively corrected the insensitivity of the NCC IMCI in detecting of the occurrence, development and relief of droughts as well as its overestimate of drought severity, and the modified IMCI is no more too sensitive to precipitation compared to ICI. However, both indexes still tend to too sensitive to small precipitation in winter season and there are unreasonable phenomena: sudden enhancement of droughts in both. The results suggest that it is advisable to perform a proper evaluation and modification if necessary before applying IMCI to a new specific region.

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秦鵬程,劉敏,萬素琴,劉志雄,湯陽.氣象干旱綜合監測指數在湖北的本地化應用及其適用性分析[J].氣象科技,2014,42(2):341~247

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  • 收稿日期:2013-02-18
  • 定稿日期:2013-06-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-04-27
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