新疆北部雪災氣候因子的風險分析試驗——以阿勒泰為例
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科技部公益專項(GYHY201106007)、 中國沙漠氣象科學研究項目(Sqj2013008)、新疆阿勒泰地區科技計劃項目(201111)共同資助


Analysis Test of Northern Xinjiang Snow Climate Risk:Taking Aletai as an Example
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    摘要:

    用新疆北部阿勒泰站1954—2010年資料,分析致災大雪5個氣候因子的概率風險。在模糊信息擴散理論初步分析的基礎上,進行綜合分析試驗。試驗表明,在未知理論分布的情況下,模糊信息擴散法對雪災氣候因子的概率風險分析可靠簡便,缺點粗糙。進一步的理論分布分析,發現冬季大雪(≥6 mm)日數、最大雪深、日最大降雪量、冬季降雪量、大于等于10 cm雪深日數的理論分布模型,具有Gamma分布特征,通過α=0001的相關系數顯著性檢驗。分析不同界限雪深日數的氣候因素族的概率密度分布,發現其具有雙峰型特征,不屬于常規典型分布,其理論分布有待深入研究。提出的Gamma分布,分析計算的步驟、方法有實際應用價值。試驗確定的具有Gamma分布特征的幾個雪災氣候因子,對于從理論上認識雪災氣候風險具有重要意義。

    Abstract:

    By means of the observation data from the Aletai station of the northern Xinjiang from 1954 to 2010, the probabilistic risk analysis for snow disasters is conducted for five major climate factors, and based on the fuzzy information diffusion theory, a comprehensive analysis experiment is carried out. The results show that in the case of unknown theoretical distribution, for the probability risk analysis of snow climate factors, the fuzzy information diffusion method is simple and reliable, but rough. The theoretical analysis of distribution indicates that the theoretical models of the number of heavy snow days in winter (≥6 mm), maximum snow depth, maximum daily snowfall, snowfall in winter, and the number of snow days with snowfall greater than or equal to 10 cm have the distribution characteristics of Gamma, with a confidence degree of 0001, passing through the test of significant correlation coefficient. The probability density distributions of climate factors are analyzed for the numbers of the days with different boundary snow depths. The results exhibit the two peak characteristic, which does not belong to the conventional canonical distribution, and the theoretical distribution needs further study. The proposed snow climate factors with gamma distribution are of significance for understanding the climate risk of snow disasters in theory.

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王建剛,王盛韜,莊曉翠,郭城,巴合提·斯哈克.新疆北部雪災氣候因子的風險分析試驗——以阿勒泰為例[J].氣象科技,2014,42(2):330~335

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  • 收稿日期:2013-01-09
  • 定稿日期:2013-08-02
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-04-27
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