基于閾值方法原理的江淮地區降水特性研究
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公益性行業(氣象)專項(GYHY201006042)資助


Characteristic Analysis of Precipitation over Yangtze Huaihe Region Based on Threshold Method
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    摘要:

    利用江淮地區20個代表站點雨量計連續30年(1980—2009年)的逐日降水資料,基于閾值方法原理對該地區降水特性進行了研究,主要討論了月平均日降水量與閾值為01,10,50,100,240,480 mm/d時降水日數占該月天數比例之間的關系。研究結果表明:各站點及江淮整體月平均日降水量與超過某一閾值降水日數占該月天數的比例之間存在著高度的線性相關關系,相關性隨著閾值的不同而變化,在閾值為240 mm/d時相關性最好,相關系數普遍超過097。低閾值時存在著非線性相關。閾值方法具有很多方面的應用,例如能更好地理解降水的形成機制;尋求更好的估測降水的算法;發展更優的數值預報模式的參數化方案;檢驗各種數值預報模式降水產品等。

    Abstract:

    Based on the principle of threshold method with daily precipitation data from 1980 to 2009, observed by 20 rain gauges over the Yangtze Huaihe region, a investigation is conducted on the characteristics of precipitation over the Yangtze Huaihe region, with emphasis on the highly correlative relation between the monthly mean daily rainfall and the ratio of the number of rainy days with rainfall exceeding a certain threshold to the number of days of the month when the rainfall thresholds being 01, 10, 50, 100, 240, and 480 mm/d, respectively. A high correlation is found between the monthly mean daily rainfall and the ratio of the number of rainy days with rainfall exceeding a certain threshold to the number of days of the month. The correlation coefficient varies with rainfall thresholds, higher than 097 for all 20 stations, peaking at a threshold of 240 mm/d. The rain rate and fractional rain day were nonlinearly related at low rain rate thresholds. The threshold method can be applied widely, for examples, to achieve a better understanding of the forming mechanics of precipitation, to seek better algorithms for the estimation of precipitation, to develop better parameterization schemes for numerical forecasting models, and to validate the outputs of various numerical weather models, and so on.

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周燕,程明虎.基于閾值方法原理的江淮地區降水特性研究[J].氣象科技,2014,42(2):287~293

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  • 收稿日期:2013-02-03
  • 定稿日期:2013-05-24
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-04-27
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