1958—2001年全球海域海表風速變化趨勢
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國家重點基礎研究發展規劃項目(2012CB957803)、中科院知識創新工程重要方向項目(KZCX2 YW Q11 03)資助


Analysis of Global Ocean Sea Surface Wind Speed Over Recent 44 Years
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    摘要:

    基于ECMWF的ERA 40海表10 m風場,對1958—2001年全球海表風速的變化趨勢進行分析,主要分析了整體變化趨勢、變化趨勢的季節性差異、區域性差異、變化周期。結果表明:①近44年期間,全球海域海表風速整體上以00067 m〖DK〗·s-1〖DK〗·a-1的速度顯著性逐年線性遞增。1958—1975年全球海域的海表風速變化較為平緩,1975—1983年遞增趨勢較為強勁,年平均海表風速的峰值出現在1999年,波谷出現在1975年。②全球海表風速的變化趨勢表現出較大的區域性差異。遞增趨勢明顯的區域主要分布于:南極、熱帶大西洋海域、北太平洋西風帶海域、印度洋中低緯度海域、南半球60°S附近大面積帶狀海域;呈顯著性逐年遞減的區域主要分布于:赤道中東太平洋、胡安〖DK〗·費爾南德斯群島附近海域、南大西洋西風帶的中部海域,以及一些零星海域。③全球海表風速的變化趨勢表現出較大的季節性差異。在各月均表現出顯著的線性遞增趨勢,以1月的遞增趨勢最為強勁,達到00103 m〖DK〗·s-1〖DK〗·a-1,7月的遞增趨勢弱于其余月份,約00033 m〖DK〗·s-1〖DK〗·a-1。④全球海域海表風速存在明顯的22~43年變化周期,以及65年以上長周期震蕩。

    Abstract:

    Based on the ERA 40 sea surface 10 m wind field data of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the change trends of the global sea surface wind speed from 1958 to 2001 are analyzed, mainly including the overall change trend, seasonal differences, regional differences, and change cycles. The result indicates: (1) Global sea surface wind speed increased significantly and linearly with a rate of 00067 m〖DK〗·s-1〖DK〗·a-1 year by year during the recent 44 years; the change of global sea surface wind speed is relatively gentle in the period of 1958 to 1975 and relatively sharp in the period of 1975 to 1983 The peak and valley of the annual mean global sea surface wind speed appeared in 1999 and 1975, respectively. (2) The change trends of global sea surface wind speed showed significant regional differences. The areas with an obvious increasing trend are mainly distributed in the Antarctic region, tropical Atlantic and North Pacific westerly zone waters, low latitudes in the Indian Ocean, and the regions near 60°S in the Southern Hemisphere, especially with the strongest increasing trend in the Southern Hemisphere high latitude waters; significantly decreasing areas are mainly distributed in the regions near the equatorial Middle East Pacific, Juan Fernandez Islands, the south westerly zone in the central Atlantic Ocean, as well as some sporadic waters. (3) The change trends of global sea surface wind speed showed significant seasonal differences with a significant linear increasing trend for all months. The sharpest increasing trend is in December (00103 m〖DK〗·s-1〖DK〗·a-1), and the gentlest increasing trend is in July (approximately 00033 m〖DK〗·s-1〖DK〗·a-1). (4) There is obvious periodic change in Global ocean sea surface wind speed with the periods being 22 to 43 years, as well as 65 years.

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潘靜,劉鑄飄,鄭崇偉,陳曉斌.1958—2001年全球海域海表風速變化趨勢[J].氣象科技,2014,42(1):104~109

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  • 收稿日期:2012-04-19
  • 定稿日期:2013-09-16
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  • 在線發布日期: 2014-02-28
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