1961—2010年云南干濕氣候變化
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基金項目:公益類行業專項“多時間尺度干旱監測與預警、評估技術研究”(HYHY201006023)資助


Dry Wet Climate Change in Yunnan During 1961-2010
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    摘要:

    利用15個站點1961—2010年日照時數、降水量和平均溫度等氣候資料,計算云南5個區域各季節相對濕潤度指數,分析云南干濕氣候變化特征。結果表明,相對濕潤度指數可定量、準確地表達云南各區域自然氣候干濕程度,能客觀反映云南干濕氣候的波動變化和區域性差別。20世紀90年代中期以來,云南干季、雨季潛在蒸散量呈增大變化趨勢,同期降水量有減小的趨勢變化,從而在氣候變暖背景下引發云南氣候的干旱化趨勢。干季各地相對濕潤度指數年際波動變化大,年代際差異明顯;雨季各地干濕狀況年際波動相對較小,且呈現明顯的周期性波動變化趨勢。云南5個區域的干濕氣候變化既有一致性也有差異性:滇中和滇西南比較一致,滇西北與滇東南差異明顯,滇西北與滇東北雨季差異突出、干季較為相似。

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    Based on the climate data of sunshine duration, precipitation, average temperature, and so on from 15 representative meteorological stations in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2010, the natural dry wet climate change and its regional differences in different seasons are analyzed. The results show that the relative moisture index can quantitatively and accurately express the natural climate wet dry status, and objectively reflect the variation over the years and the regional differences for dry wet climate in Yunnan. In the respect of variation trends, potential evapotranspiration was increasing and precipitation was decreasing during both dry and wet seasons since the mid 1990s, which led to obvious aridification trend jointly in Yunnan under the background of climate warming. Meanwhile, the relative moisture index of Yunnan had the bigger inter annual fluctuations in dry season (compared to rainy season) and obvious inter decadal differences. The wet dry climate status of rainy season showed evident periodic variation trends in all regions. Flood drought climate changes of five regions in Yunnan had both consistencies and differences. Especially, the central Yunnan was obviously consistent with the southwestern part, while the northwest was distinctly different from the southeast. The northeast had distinction during rainy season but claimed similarity in dry season with northwest Yunnan.

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紀智榮,黃中艷,謝國清.1961—2010年云南干濕氣候變化[J].氣象科技,2013,41(6):1073~1079

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2012-10-12
  • 定稿日期:2013-05-10
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-12-27
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