廣西區域極端特大暴雨成因個例分析
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中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2012 043)、中國氣象局華南區域氣象中心項目(CRMC2012M07)及“桂科攻1298005 3”項目共同資助


Causal Analysis of a Regional Extreme Severe Rainstorm in Guangxi
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    摘要:

    利用常規觀測資料、FY 2E衛星觀測資料、雷達探測資料以及自動站雨量資料等,對2010年6月28日廣西極端特大暴雨過程進行分析;結果表明:①暴雨災害具有區域小、降雨時段集中、過程雨量大、短歷時降雨強及引發次生災害特別重等特點;②亞歐中高緯度500 hPa呈兩脊一槽型、200 hPa南亞高壓脊線貫穿廣西上空及西南季風活躍是暴雨的環流背景;高空低渦、地面干線是主要天氣系統配置,屬低渦暴雨型;③強不穩定能量及層結的存在、850 hPa以下低層輻合、700 hPa附近明顯渦旋、整層大氣上升運動、850 hPa以下層高濕及水汽強烈輻合是主要物理量特征;④中尺度低壓、低渦及氣流輻合等是中尺度對流觸發條件。FY 2E紅外云圖上對流云團生成、合并對強降雨有重要指示意義,暴雨發生在云團合并發展階段,FY 2E的TBB值小于200 K可以作為短歷時強降雨的指標。低質心雷達回波產生的列車效應和地形作用是造成強降雨的重要因素,低層輻合、高層輻散導致的強烈上升運動,有利于強對流的發展與維持。

    Abstract:

    By using the conventional observation, FY 2E satellite, radar detection, and automatic weather station rainfall data, the extreme severe rainstorm on 28 June 2010 in Guangxi is analyzed. The results show: (1) The rainstorm disaster has the features of small influencing area, concentrated in time, large process rainfall, short duration, and serious secondary disaster. (2) The rainstorm occurred in the circulation pattern of “two ridges and one trough” over the high latitude Eurasia at 500 hPa, with the ridge line of South Asia High throughout Guangxi at 200 hPa accompanying with active southwest monsoon. Configuration of the upper vortex and surface dry line indicates a vortex type storm. (3) The main physical quantity characteristics included the presence of strong instability energy and stratification, low level convergence at 850 hPa and below, obvious vortex near 700 hPa, upward motion in the whole atmosphere, and high humidity and strong convergence of water vapor at 850 hPa and below. (4) Mesoscale low, vortex, convergence of airflow, etc., triggered the mesoscale convection. Formation and mergence of convective cloud clusters on the FY 2E satellite cloud picture has implications for heavy rainfall. The rainstorm occurring in the development stage of clouds and TBB value being less than 200 K could be used as an indicator of short term heavy rainfall. The train effect produced by the low centroid radar echoes and the effect of topography are important factors in causing heavy rainfall. Strong vertical motion induced by the low level convergence and upper level divergence is conducive to the development and maintenance of strong convection.

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劉國忠,韋春霞,班榮貴,盧小丹,黃明策.廣西區域極端特大暴雨成因個例分析[J].氣象科技,2013,41(5):895~905

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  • 收稿日期:2012-09-12
  • 定稿日期:2013-05-13
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-10-31
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