不同參數化方案對風預報效果影響個例研究
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項“復雜地形風能預報技術研究(GYHY201006035)”、中國氣象局公共氣象服務中心業務服務專項基金“風能預報業務風速訂正子系統開發[2012]第011號”資助


Impacts of Different Parameterization Combination Schemes on Wind Forecast
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    摘要:

    中尺度氣象模式對風場的預報效果與參數化方案的適應性緊密相關。以內蒙古高原丘陵地形、江蘇平緩的海陸交界地形2種典型下墊面試驗風電場為模擬區域,分別用WRFV32 (Weather Research and Forecast Model)模式自帶的6種物理過程參數化組合方案預報了2010年1月和7月兩個風電場區域的風速和風向,對比分析了參數化組合方案差異對風場預報的影響。結果表明:①內蒙古試驗區,邊界層MRF方案描述的邊界層結構較 MYJ 方案合理;微物理方案WSM3在夏季的風速預報能力優于WSM6,而冬季相反;復雜地形區域的風場預報需考慮陸面過程參數化方案,尤其是夏季降水發生后,陸面過程對于邊界層結構的影響增大,選用Noah優于無陸面過程。②江蘇試驗區,邊界層MRF方案描述的邊界層結構較 MYJ 方案合理;1月陸面過程RUC方案優于陸面熱量擴散和Noah;7月陸面熱量擴散方案優于RUC和Noah。③風向預報6個方案的預報風向統計與實際記錄風向統計有較好的一致性,風向概率分布相似,盛行風向一致且穩定。

    Abstract:

    The wind forecasting results of the mesoscale meteorological model are closely related to the adaptability of the parameterization schemes. Two pilot wind farms with typical underlying surface are selected as simulation regions, which are the undulating hilly terrain of Inner Mongolia and the flat land sea border terrain of Jiangsu respectively. Six kinds of physical process parameterizations of WRFV32 (Weather Research and Forecast Model) are adopted in forecasting the wind speed and direction of the two wind farms in January 2010 and July 2010, and the impacts of parameterizations difference on wind forecasting are analyzed. The results show that: (1) In the experimental area of Inner Mongolia,the MRF boundary Layer parameterization scheme is more reasonable than MYJ does in describing the structure of the boundary layer; the microphysical scheme WSM3 forecasts the wind speed better than WSM6 in summer and vice versa in winter; the land surface process scheme increases the influence on the boundary layer structure of complicated terrain, especially after summer rainfall, and the Noah scheme is better than that without any land surface process. (2) In the experimental area of Jiangsu, the MRF boundary Layer parameterization schemes describes the structure of the boundary layer more reasonable than MYJ; the land surface process RUC is superior to the heat diffusion and Noah schemes in January; the heat diffusion scheme is superior to the RUC and Noah in July. (3) The forecasting wind direction statistics of the six parameterization combination schemes and the actual recorded wind direction statistics are in good agreement, and the wind direction probability distribution is similar, and the prevailing wind direction is consistent and stable.

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孫逸涵,程興宏,柳艷香,宋麗莉.不同參數化方案對風預報效果影響個例研究[J].氣象科技,2013,41(5):870~877

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  • 收稿日期:2012-07-10
  • 定稿日期:2012-12-11
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-10-31
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