山地等價雨量
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中國氣象局“2012年業務專項經費”資助


Mountain Equivalent Rainfall
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    摘要:

    提出山地等價雨量概念和計算方法,以達到滑坡泥石流預警指標借用國家暴雨預警標準的目的。在對國家與中國西部山地的暴雨標準進行對比后得到國家標準剛好是山地標準的2倍;由大多數滑坡泥石流災害發生在海拔高度1300 m地帶的事實,讓高斯分布描述二者關系成為可行的選擇;氣象與國土部門流行的潛勢雨量對滑坡泥石流潛勢作用計算式,促成了山地等價雨量計算式的最終形成。通過對平原、山地、高原等不同環境的模擬評測試驗和實況抽樣檢驗,山地等價雨量公式能夠達到預想設計效果?,F在山地等價雨量公式已經用于滑坡泥石流預警分析圖網站自動化發布,其運行效果尚需進一步在實踐中加以驗證。

    Abstract:

    The mountain equivalent rainfall concepts and calculation methods are proposed, borrowing from the national rainstorm warning standards for the debris flow early warning, so that they can be used as a uniform standard for both rainstorms and debris flow warning. The functions of the mountain equivalent rainfall ultimately are based on three facts: (1) the national standard is two times as much as the western mountain standard for the same storm warning; (2) most of the debris flow disasters occur around the altitude of 1300 m; and (3) the relationships between altitude and disaster can be described with Gaussian distribution, which is used widely as the formula by meteorological and land planning departments to determine the potential effect of pre precipitation accumulated rainfall on debris flow. The mountain equivalent rainfall formula can achieve the desired effect in the sampling simulation and evaluation tests and various environments, such as plains, mountains, and the plateau at different altitudes. The mountain equivalent rainfall formula has been used in the automatic releasing on a web site for debris flow early warning and analysis. Its application results need to be further verified in practice.

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何險峰,薛勤.山地等價雨量[J].氣象科技,2013,41(4):771~776

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2012-03-21
  • 定稿日期:2012-11-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-08-27
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