一次東風波大暴雨過程診斷分析
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國家公益性行業專項(GYHY201006004)、寧波市社會發展公益公關項目(2009C50031)資助


Diagnosis of a Heavy Rainfall Event in 1988 Caused by Easterly Wave
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    利用美國環境預報中心05°氣候預報系統再分析資料,研究了1988年“7〖DK〗·30”浙東大暴雨過程,發現低空南、北兩支東風擾動的合并及其與高空急流的相互作用是暴雨產生的主要原因。高空冷渦與華北高壓共同強迫,形成了東南向的高空急流;急流具有明顯的動量下傳特征,加大了對流層中層的東風分量,構成深厚的東風波系統?!?〖DK〗·30”過程的對流有效位能主要是海上氣團的平流輸送。低壓倒槽的切變輻合積聚了大氣的水汽含量,形成深厚的高相當位溫層。對流層高層存在冷平流,使得東風波西移過程中對流有效位能能夠持續穩定。風暴相對螺旋度與東風波系統匹配較好,能夠清楚反映南、北兩支東風擾動的合并過程。風暴相對螺旋度移動速度略快于東風波系統和垂直渦度,能夠提前預報東風波降水的落區。

    Abstract:

    The heavy rainfall process occurred on 30 July 1988 around the southeastern coast of Zhejiang Province is investigated by 05° NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. It is found that the heavy rainfall was mainly caused by the merging of two low level east wind perturbations from south and north, respectively, and its interaction with upper level jets. The south and north branches of the easterly wave originated from the abrupt westerly, southerly evolution of the subtropical anticyclone, and the development of convective perturbations triggered by the typhoon inverted trough, respectively. The east west oriented upper level jet was formed under the combined forcing of the upper level cold vortex and the Huabei anticyclone system. The upper level jet possessed an obvious downward transmission feature in momentum, which would enhance the easterly wind component at middle troposphere and form a deep easterly wave system. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) in the heavy rainfall event of 30 July 1988 was mainly caused by the advection of air mass on the sea. The convergence in low pressure converted trough could accumulate water content in air and form a deep level with high equivalent potential temperature. This high equivalent potential temperature level may moved westward along with the easterly wave system and concentrate CAPE to convection development. There existed cold advection at the upper troposphere which could make the value of CAPE maintain steady during the westerly moving of easterly wave. The potential possibility of heavy rainfall caused by moving easterly wave could not be predicted by the single point sounding on the ground. The storm relative helicity matched with the easterly wave system very well and from it the emerging process of the south and north branches of east wind perturbations could be reflected clearly. The moving speed of the storm relative helicity was a little faster than that of the easterly wave system and vertical vorticity, and therefore the storm relative helicity can be used to predict the falling area of the easterly wave heavy rainfall in advance.

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顧思南,陳從夷,劉建勇,徐迪峰.一次東風波大暴雨過程診斷分析[J].氣象科技,2013,41(4):726~735

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  • 收稿日期:2012-04-18
  • 定稿日期:2012-11-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-08-27
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