多家數值產品沿海大暴雨預報性能檢驗
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Performance Verification of Coastal Torrential Rainfall Forecast with Several Numerical Products
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    摘要:

    2010年8月4—5日和2010年8月21—22日兩次天氣過程都是在副熱帶高壓外圍產生的沿海大暴雨天氣,利用多種資料,重點針對基層氣象臺(站)常用的幾家數值模式產品,對兩次暴雨過程從環流形勢、影響系統、降水量要素等方面進行檢驗分析。結果表明:各家數值模式產品對暴雨定量預報有一定的預報能力,但降雨量級普遍偏小,對強降水中心的預報穩定性較差;在降水量級上,EC模式預報較準確,具有較高的參考價值。對產生暴雨天氣影響系統位置和強度的預報,不同的數值模式有所差異;對西太平洋副熱帶高壓的預報,T639模式和EC模式各時效預報脊點位置跟實況場一致,但強度較實況偏弱;但對高空槽和切變線的預報跟實況都有一定的偏差。因此在暴雨預報中需要在參考數值預報的基礎上,結合強對流工具、實況加密資料、物理量場、相似個例和經驗外推等其他輔助手段提高暴雨站點預報準確率,從而提升災害性天氣服務的效果。

    Abstract:

    Two coastal heavy rain events occurred in 4-5 and 21-22 August 2010 were caused by the subtropical high. For several kinds of numerical products that are used widely, verification is conducted mainly from the aspects of circulation situation, influencing systems, and precipitation elements. The results show that these numerical products have certain prediction capability for heavy rainfall quantitatively, but predicted rainfall levels are generally smaller, and the prediction of the strong precipitation center is poor in stability; the position forecasts of EC and T639 models are more accurate, but the intensity forecasts are smaller than the actual situation. There are certain differences between numerical models and the actual situation in the position and intensity of the weather systems producing the heavy rainfall. As for the West Pacific subtropical high, the 72 h forecast of the T639 model is weaker than the actual storm, and the stability of EC model is higher, but there is certain deviation in upper trough and shear line forecasts. In torrential rain forecasting, it is necessary, on the basis of numerical forecast products, to combine strong convective products with such auxiliary tools as intensive observation data, physical fields, similar examples, experienced empirical extrapolation, etc., to improve the forecast accuracy of heavy rain forecasts.

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崔粉娥,王勇,李慧君.多家數值產品沿海大暴雨預報性能檢驗[J].氣象科技,2013,41(4):696~702

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-27
  • 定稿日期:2012-10-09
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-08-27
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