影響高原大氣熱源的海溫強信號及其相關大氣結構
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自然科學基金重點項目41130960、行業專項GYHY201006009


Sea Surface Temperature “Strong Signals” Influencing Plateau Heat Sources and Its correlated Atmospheric Structure
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    摘要:

    利用1951—2007年NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析資料和NOAA擴展重建海表溫度ERSSTv3b數據,通過分析春季地氣溫差和大氣熱源顯著性分布及變化特征,選定了東亞(以青藏高原為主)區域為研究對象,運用標準化指數計算、異常年合成,相關性比較等方法,分析并探討了影響高原春季熱源的前期冬季海溫特征及時空分布關系。分析發現在冬季北太平洋海面存在著兩個海溫與春季高原視熱源相關性較顯著的區域,位于北太平洋東部海域A區及位于北太平洋西部海域B區,前者呈正相關關系,后者呈反相關關系。以3月高原熱源為出發點,進一步分析了前期海溫場對青藏高原視熱源影響“強信號”區持續性,以印證冬季海溫對春季視熱源影響具有持續性的前兆性意義。通過異常年分析,揭示出對應于前期冬季海溫強信號區異常年的高原大氣視熱源與風場垂直結構異常特征;通過前冬海溫強信號區與夏季東亞相關環流型和水汽輸送結構的相關矢綜合分析,進一步揭示出夏季長江中下游多雨年的前冬海溫強信號區域與后期夏季500 hPa高度場相關型及其整層水汽輸送相關矢特征。

    Abstract:

    The relationship between Tibet plateau heat sources in early spring and sea surface temperature (SST) in the prior winter is analyzed and explored, based on the data of NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis from 1951 to 2007, and NOAA’s extended reconstruction SST data (ERSST.v3b). The methods used include standardized index, abnormal year synthesis, and statistical analysis. The results show that there are two areas in the North Pacific Ocean, in which SST in previous winter has remarkable correlation with the heat sources on the plateau in early spring: Region A located in the Eastern North Pacific with the positive relation, and Region B located in the Western North Pacific with negative relation. Meanwhile, the persistent correlation between SST in previous winter and heat sources in the plateau in March is analyzed; it was found that the method using the variation of SST in the prior winter in both Region A and B has shown some skill in predicting Tibet plateau heat sources in spring. The abnormal synthesis reveals that the abnormal characteristics of atmospheric heat sources and the vertical structure of the wind fields correspond to the abnormal years of previous winter sea temperature in strong signal areas. The further study indicates that the characteristics of the late summer 500 hPa height field pattern and its water vapor transport vectors are related with previous winter SST in Yangtze rainy years.

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朱文會,徐祥德,陳渭民,魏鳳英.影響高原大氣熱源的海溫強信號及其相關大氣結構[J].氣象科技,2013,41(4):670~681

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  • 收稿日期:2012-05-07
  • 定稿日期:2012-08-28
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-08-27
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