臺風“天鵝”對“莫拉克”強度維持影響的模擬分析
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國家自然科學基金項目(40875025,40875030)資助


A Simulation Analysis of Typhoon Goni’s Impact on the Intensity Maintenance of Typhoon Morakot
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    摘要:

    為探究重災臺風0908號莫拉克(Morkot)成災的內在原因,利用NCEP/NCAR1°×1°資料和WRF數值模式,以及觀測分析和數值模擬方法,對“莫拉克”過臺灣島強度始終維持在960 hPa不減的現象進行研究。觀測分析發現“莫拉克”強度不減與其西南方向的0907號臺風天鵝(Goni)相互作用有關,物理量諸如水汽、散度、渦度等持續從“天鵝”輸入“莫拉克”,如水汽輸入層次主要集中在950~850 hPa,600 hPa以上很少;渦度(垂直速度)也存在低層正渦度(負散度)輸送,高層負渦度(正散度)輸送。利用WRF數值模式作控制試驗和抹掉臺風天鵝的敏感試驗,試驗結果表明有渦度、水汽通量、散度等物理量從天鵝向莫拉克輸送卷入,從而對莫拉克過臺灣島強度的維持不減存在一定的支持作用。

    Abstract:

    Typhoon Morakot (0908) caused severe damage. In order to explore the underlying reasons, the phenomenon that the intensity of the typhoon always remained around 960 hPa and did not reduce when it passed over the island of Taiwan is studied from both observational and numerical simulation results, by using the NCEP/NCAR1°×1°data and WRF numerical model. The observational analysis shows that the no reduction of Typhoon Morakot’s intensity was closely related to the interaction between Morakot and Goni (0907), which was in its southwest direction, and some physical quantities from Typhoon Goni were continuously transported into Morakot, such as the inputting of water vapor were mainly from 950 to 850 hPa, but rarely above 600 hPa. The transmission of vertical velocity existed in the whole layer, extending from 1000 hPa to 300 hPa. The positive vorticity (negative divergence) was transferred at the lower levels, and the negative vorticity (positive divergence) at the upper levels. Using the WRF numerical model for each control and sensitivity experiment in which Typhoon Goni was filtered, the results show that vorticity, moisture flux, divergence, and other physical quantities from Typhoon Goni were transported and involved in Typhoon Morakot, and thus they gave positive contribution to the maintenance and no reduction of Typhoon Morakot intensity when it passed over the island of Taiwan.

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鄭峰,張靈杰.臺風“天鵝”對“莫拉克”強度維持影響的模擬分析[J].氣象科技,2013,41(4):664~669

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  • 收稿日期:2012-05-08
  • 定稿日期:2013-03-21
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-08-27
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