天津電力負荷特性及其與氣象因子的關系
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華北區域氣候變化評估報告編制項目(CCSF2010 1)資助


Characteristics of Electrical Load and Its Relationship toMeteorological Factors in Tianjin
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    摘要:

    利用天津近30年來的逐年電力負荷數據以及2002—2005年逐時電力負荷資料,分析了天津電力負荷的變化特征,研究了電力負荷與氣象因子的關系。結果表明:近30年來,天津電力負荷的長期趨勢基本受當地GDP的影響,氣溫等氣象因子的作用不明顯;在季節和日尺度上,氣溫的影響十分顯著,7、8月氣溫每上升1 ℃,氣象負荷將增加120 MW左右;除氣溫的影響外,夏季、初秋相對濕度對電力負荷的影響非常顯著,此外,4月、6月、7月和12月還得考慮風的影響;一般來說,夏季最高氣溫在30 ℃以上,平均相對濕度大于65%時,才可能出現極端電力負荷。

    Abstract:

    Using the hourly electrical load data from 2002 to 2005 and the year to year data of electrical load in the recent 30 years in Tianjin, the characteristics of electrical load and its relationship with meteorological factors are analyzed. The results show that the long term interannual trend of electrical load in recent 30 years was dominantly influenced by the local GDP, whereas meteorological factors such as temperature showed no significant effect. At the seasonal and daily scales, the electrical load was obviously related with air temperature. Especially in July and August, if temperature increased 1 ℃, electrical load rose by about 120 MW. Besides the influence of temperature, relative humidity had remarkable effect on electrical load in summer and early autumn. Moreover, the effect of winds on electrical load should be considered in April, June, July, and December. Generally, extreme electrical load might appear when the maximum temperature was up to 30 ℃, and average humidity was more than 65% in summer.

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熊明明,李明財,任雨,徐姝,楊艷娟.天津電力負荷特性及其與氣象因子的關系[J].氣象科技,2013,41(3):577~582

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  • 收稿日期:2012-02-28
  • 定稿日期:2012-11-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-06-24
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