SWAN系統在一次暴雨天氣過程分析中的應用
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國家自然科學基金項目(41005027,40875025、40875030)、氣象災害省部共建教育部重點實驗室開放課題KLME0905資助


Application of SWAN System in Analysis of a Heavy Rain
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    摘要:

    對2011年7月25—26日鎮江市暴雨天氣過程的天氣背景、穩定指數和垂直風切變進行分析,利用SWAN系統研究CAPPI回波和液態水含量的相關演變特征,并檢驗SWAN系統下TITAN風暴識別和追蹤技術的精度和水平,得出結論:7月25—26日鎮江市暴雨天氣過程有著較好的動力、水汽、層結不穩定以及垂直風切變條件,構成了產生大風暴雨天氣的有利環境場。兩個降水集中時段風暴特征有所不同,第1階段為颮線影響,第2階段為風暴群影響,二者均包含了普通單體和強降水超級單體,此兩種單體均具有中心強度大、回波頂高度高的特征。液態水含量的演變與風暴強度吻合較好。TITAN系統對風暴未來1 h內位置和輪廓預報沒有30 min內預報精確度高,對處在發展、成熟階段的風暴,30 min跟蹤和預報與實況接近,對處在減弱階段的風暴,較實況則略有滯后。

    Abstract:

    The synoptic background, stability index, and vertical shear of horizontal winds in a heavy rain happened on 25 and 26 July 2011 in Zhenjiang are analyzed. By using the SWAN system, the evolution characteristics of CAPPI radar echo images and VIL are studied. The TITAN storm identification and tracing techniques in SWAN are tested. The results show that the adequate dynamic condition, vapor condition, unsteady stratified atmosphere, and strong vertical shear of horizontal winds provided a favorable environment for the heavy rain process and resulted in the strong wind weather in Zhenjiang on 25 and 26 July. The characteristics of heavy rainfall in the two time periods were different: there was a squall weather process in the first period, and a group of rainstorms in the second period; both squall line and rainstorms contain common cells and high precipitation super cells, both of which have the characteristics of strong centers and high echo tops. A good corresponding relation between the evolution of VIL and the strength of storm is obtained. For the position and outline of a storm, the one hour forecast is less accurate than 30 minute forecast. For a developing or a well developed storm, the 30 minute tracking and forecasting are close to the real case, and for a weakening storm, there is a lag.

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趙棟,郭煜,壽紹文,錢鵬. SWAN系統在一次暴雨天氣過程分析中的應用[J].氣象科技,2013,41(2):326~333

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2011-11-06
  • 定稿日期:2012-07-11
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-04-11
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