2010年遼寧主汛期暴雨過程副高、急流及層結特征分析
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中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2012 011)、公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201006006 08)、公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY20090611)、遼寧省氣象局2010年科研課題“遼寧省分縣氣象要素短時預報業務系統建設”資助


Subtropical High, Jet and Stratification Characteristics of Six Torrential Rainfall Processes in 2010 Flood Period in Liaoning Province
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    摘要:

    利用遼寧逐日降雨量、NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析資料、副熱帶高壓等資料,對2010年6—8月西太平洋副熱帶高壓脊線、北界、西界和高、低空急流及層結結構的特征與6次暴雨過程的起止時間、降雨強度、降雨性質的關系進行了分析。結果表明:2010年7—8月110°~130°E平均副熱帶高壓脊線在81%的時間較常年同期偏北,平均副高脊線位置較常年偏北了27°;6次暴雨發生期間,副高脊線均位于27°~35°N之間,130°E附近副高588 dagpm線北界均位于38°~45°N之間,35°N附近副高588 dagpm線西界均位于110°~130°E之間;強降雨主要出現在850 hPa低空急流建立下,200 hPa高空急流發展到最強后、強度逐漸減弱、急流核逐漸南下的過程中;在分析特征的基礎上,凝練預報指標,為今后類似的區域性暴雨預報提供參考。

    Abstract:

    The daily precipitation data in Liaoning, daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, and Subtropical High (SH) data are employed to investigate the relationships among the SH ridge, the northern and western boundaries of SH, upper and low level jets, stratification characteristics, and the starting/ending times, as well as the precipitation intensities and properties of six torrential rainfall processes occurred from June to August 2010 The results show that the SH ridge line was located averagely from 110°E to 130°E in July and August 2010, farther north than that in normal years for 81% probability, and the average position of the SH ridge line was 27° farther north than that in the same period of normal years. During the six torrential rainfall processes,the ridge line of SH was located between 27°N and 35°N, and the northern boundary of the 588 contour line near 130°E and the western boundary near 35°N were located between 38° and 45°N, 110° and 130°E, respectively. The heavy rain occurred when the jet core moved southwardly affecting Liaoning Province after the upper level jet reached its strongest phase in the background that the low level jet was well established and maintained. The forecast indexes are concisely summarized based on the characteristic analysis of facts, which provides reference for the like regional torrential rainfall forecasting in the future.

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陳傳雷,孫欣,李玉鳴,盧娟,張寧娜,張楠.2010年遼寧主汛期暴雨過程副高、急流及層結特征分析[J].氣象科技,2013,41(1):146~152

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  • 收稿日期:2011-09-06
  • 定稿日期:2012-05-09
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-02-01
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