日平均計算方法對氣溫統計值的影響
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公益性行業(氣象)科研專項(GYHY201106038)和陜西省氣象局氣象科技創新基金項目(2012M 50)共同資助


Influence of Calculation Methods on Calculated Daily Mean Temperature
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    摘要:

    為了弄清不同日平均計算方法對氣溫統計值的影響,利用陜西6個基準站的定時氣溫資料分別進行24次觀測與4次觀測,以及4次與3次觀測值計算所得日平均氣溫計算值的差異分析,并對1961—2010年的3次、4次、24次計算的年平均氣溫序列進行均一性的懲罰最大F檢驗(PMFT)。結果表明:24次氣溫定時值計算的日平均氣溫均值高于4次值,平均差值為013 ℃,標準差為039 ℃,兩者差值在秋季較大。4次比3次日平均氣溫值平均偏低014 ℃,標準差為085 ℃,一年中,夏季差值最大。不同次數的日平均氣溫計算方法可引起月、年平均氣溫值02 ℃甚至以上的升降。24次氣溫值的使用可以使單站的氣溫增暖速率提高003~004 ℃/10a。但日平均氣溫計算方法的改變不會造成氣溫序列的非均一。

    Abstract:

    In order to understand of the influence of different calculation methods on the calculated daily mean temperature, an analysis is made of the difference in daily average temperature calculated from the observations between 24 and 4 times per day, as well as 4 and 3 times per day, by using the temperature obtained by manual observation data from 1961 to 2010 from 6 national base stations in Shaanxi. The homogeneity Penalized Maximal 〖WTBX〗F〖WTBZ〗 Test (PMFT) is carried out with the long temperature sequence, which consists of manual 4 and 24 times per day observation or 3 and 4 times per day times observation. The results indicate that the 24 times per day average temperature is higher than that from the 4 times per day calculation; the average difference is 013 ℃; and standard deviation is 039 ℃, with the biggest difference in autumn. The 4 times per day daily average temperature is 014 ℃ lower than that calculated by 3 times per day observation, and the standard deviation is 085 ℃, with the biggest difference value in summer. The monthly or annual mean temperature calculated from temperature observations with different number of observations varies, with the difference being about± 02 ℃. If the 24 times per day temperature is used, for a single station, the temperatures increasing rate may be 003 to 004 ℃/10a higher. Nevertheless, the calculation method (changing from 4 times to 24 times, or from 3 times to 4 times) will not change the inhomogeneity of a temperature sequence.

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李亞麗,妙娟利,賀音.日平均計算方法對氣溫統計值的影響[J].氣象科技,2013,41(1):88~92

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  • 收稿日期:2011-09-29
  • 定稿日期:2012-09-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2013-02-01
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