山東省主要糧食作物氣候生產潛力時空變化特征
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山東省自然科學基金項目(ZR2010DM011)、曲阜師范大學博士基金項目(BSQD09028)資助


Spatial Temporal Variation Characteristics of Climatic Potential Productivity for Grain Crops in Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    根據山東省1961—2008年的氣象資料,利用逐級訂正法計算了山東省冬小麥和夏玉米等主要糧食作物的氣候生產潛力,并進一步采用經驗正交函數分解方法,探討了其時空變化特征。結果表明:山東省冬小麥及夏玉米的氣候生產潛力存在有明顯的年際波動和空間差異,其中冬小麥優、劣年景氣候生產潛力相差3~9倍,夏玉米相對較小,為2~3倍;全省冬小麥、夏玉米氣候生產潛力的高值區位于水熱條件匹配較好的魯南地區,低值區在半島東部沿海地區;冬小麥、夏玉米氣候生產潛力與實際單產的年際變化基本一致,山東省糧食產量,特別是夏玉米產量的年際波動受作物生長期間氣候條件影響較大;全省冬小麥、夏玉米氣候生產潛力在空間上具有較好的一致性,區域互補性較差。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data from meteorological observation stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2008, the yearly average climatic potential productivity of grain crops (winter wheat and summer maize) is calculated by the phase correction method, and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of climatic potential productivity of grain crops are analyzed by the decomposition method of the empirical orthogonal function. The results show that there were obvious inter annual fluctuation and regional difference in climatic potential productivity of grain crops. The productivity in a rich harvest year was 3 to 9 times of that in a poor harvest year for winter wheat and 2 to 3 times of that for summer maize. The area of high productivity of grain crops was in the south part of Shandong Province with better hydro thermal conditions and low productivity was in the east coastal area of the Shandong Peninsula. The annual variation of the yields was consistent with that of climatic potential productivity. The yields of grain crops, especially for summer maize, were affected remarkably by climatic condition in growth season in Shandong Province. There was good spatial consistence in climatic potential productivity of grain crops in the whole province. The grain crop productivity fluctuated due to unstable monsoon climate. Regional complementarity of grain production was relatively poor in Shandong Province.

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廉麗姝,李志富,李梅,李慶,李長軍.山東省主要糧食作物氣候生產潛力時空變化特征[J].氣象科技,2012,40(6):1030~1038

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  • 收稿日期:2011-07-21
  • 定稿日期:2012-01-04
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  • 在線發布日期: 2012-12-11
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