江西省冬季氣溫異常與區域海溫的關聯
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江西省氣象局2010年創新基金項目“江西省冬季異常氣候分型及預測研究”資助


Relationship between Winter Air Temperature in Jiangxi and Regional Sea Surface Temperature
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    摘要:

    利用1960—2010年江西省81個臺站月平均氣溫觀測資料和NOAA全球月平均海表溫度資料(ERSST V3),分析了江西省冬季氣溫異常與海溫異常的相互聯系,并運用超前〖CD*2〗滯后相關分析和奇異值分解(SVD)方法初步探討了關鍵區海溫異常之間的相互作用。結果表明:①影響江西省冬季氣溫異常的海溫關鍵區和關鍵時段分別為同期印度洋(10°S~20°N,54°~90°E)、同期西北太平洋(20°~40°N,120°~180°E)和前期8—9月北大西洋中部(24°~44°N,20°~60°W)海域;②西北太平洋關鍵區暖水年預示暖冬年好于印度洋區,而印度洋區冷水年預示冷冬年稍好于西北太平洋區,冬季西北太平洋與印度洋海溫異常可以修正前期8—9月北大西洋中部海溫異常對江西省冬季氣溫的影響。

    Abstract:

    Using the monthly temperature from 81 stations of Jiangxi and the sea surface temperature (SST) data from NOAA, the possible relation between winter (DJF) temperature anomalies in Jiangxi and Global SSTA is analyzed. The coupling relationship between the anomalous distribution in winter air temperature and the variations of SST is studied with the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis method. The interaction between key areas is also discussed with the lead lag correlation analysis and SVD methods. The main results are as follows: (1) The winter air the temperature anomaly of Jiangxi had obviously identical distribution with concurrent SSTs over the Indian Ocean (10°S to 20°N, 54° to 90°E) and Northwest Pacific Ocean key area (20° to 40°N, 120° to 180°E), and the preceding August to September SSTs over the North Atlantic Ocean key area (24° to 44°N, 20° to 60°W); (2) The correlation between the warmer seawater and warmer winter in Jiangxi was better over the Northwest Pacific Ocean key area than that over the Indian Ocean, and the correlation between cooler seawater and cooler winter in Jiangxi was better over the Pacific Ocean than that over the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The SSTAs over the Indian Ocean and Northwest Pacific Ocean key areas can be used to correct the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean SSTA in winter air temperature prediction in Jiangxi.

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馬鋒敏,章毅之,何擁鳳,張超美,唐傳師.江西省冬季氣溫異常與區域海溫的關聯[J].氣象科技,2012,40(6):976~982

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  • 收稿日期:2011-07-18
  • 定稿日期:2012-02-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2012-12-11
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