RHtest方法對我國降水資料的均一性檢驗試驗
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國家重點基礎研究發展計劃(973計劃)(2010CB951602)資助


Homogeneity Study of Precipitation Data over China Using RHtest Method
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    摘要:

    應用RHtest方法結合臺站元數據信息對我國1725個氣象臺站1961—2009年月降水資料進行了均一性檢驗試驗和訂正,并以波密站、元陽站和巢湖站為例介紹了檢驗過程。結果表明:該方法能夠適用于對我國降水資料均一性檢驗且具有較高的應用前景。2400臺站高密度月降水資料的使用更加有益于參考序列的選取,采用數理統計分析和結合元數據主觀判斷的方式來對序列進行均一性檢驗更加合理。檢驗出存在非均一性斷點的臺站僅占2.1%,表明我國降水資料序列均一性情況良好,臺站較大距離的遷移是造成部分降水序列非均一的重要原因之一。對檢驗出存在斷點的降水序列采用RHtest提供的訂正方法進行了訂正和趨勢分析,發現訂正后降水序列的年變化趨勢具有明顯的改變,均一性也有很大改善。

    Abstract:

    Based on the RHtest method and the detailed metadata archive, the homogeneity of the monthly precipitation data from 1961 to 2009 of 1725 meteorological observation stations is examined and adjusted, taking Bomi, Yuanyang and Chaohu stations as examples. The results show that the homogeneity detection method works well for the examination of the precipitation data over China and has high prospects. It is more beneficial to the selection of the reference series to use 2400 stations monthly precipitation data, which has the higher density. Using both mathematical statistical analysis and subjective judgments with metadata is more reasonable to detect the homogeneity of the series. Only about 21 percent records are non homogeneous among the detected stations, which indicates that the homogeneity of the precipitation is good in most areas of China. For the non homogeneous stations, the change of location is one of the main causes. Applying the method of Rhtest, the series that have breakpoints are adjusted and the trends of the series are analyzed. It is found that the yearly precipitation trend has changed obviously and the homogeneity is improved well after adjustment.

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張高杰,何金海,周自江,曹麗娟. RHtest方法對我國降水資料的均一性檢驗試驗[J].氣象科技,2012,40(6):914~921

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  • 收稿日期:2011-07-14
  • 定稿日期:2012-03-02
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  • 在線發布日期: 2012-12-11
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