梨樹始花期預報
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Prediction of Flowering Beginning of Pear Trees in Fengxian
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    摘要:

    基于豐縣1984—2009年氣溫、日照和降水量資料,分析越冬期不同時段的氣象因子對梨樹始花期的影響。結果表明:①后期因子影響大,前期相對較??;②溫度、日照因子影響大,降水因子影響較小。越冬期溫度水平高,光照充足,梨樹始花期就偏早,反之始花期就偏晚;在上年12月至當年1月,除12月下旬外,最高氣溫偏高,影響梨樹休眠期的需冷量積累,開花就越晚,最高氣溫偏低,需冷量的積累充足,有利于解除梨樹休眠,開花就越早。采用逐步回歸方法,利用SPSS軟件,建立了梨樹始花期預報模型,模型擬合效果較好,預報準確率滿足業務要求,及時為政府和果農提供準確的始花期預報。

    Abstract:

    The relationships between the dates of initial blooming of pear trees and meteorological factors are analyzed based on the temperature, sunshine, and precipitation data of Fengxian from 1984 to 2009. The results indicate: (1) the influence of the meteorological factors in the late period is greater compared to that in the previous period; (2) the influence of temperature and sunshine is obvious, and that of precipitation is small. The greater the temperature and the more the sunshine, the earlier the pear trees flower; on the contrary, the later the pear trees flowering. From December to next January (except the late December), the higher the maximum temperatures, the lower the chilling requirement to be accumulated, the later the flowering; the lower the maximum temperature (the accumulation of chilling requirement is conducive to dormancy release), the earlier the flowering. By means of the method of stepwise regression using the SPSS software, a model is established to predict the beginning of the flowering period, the accuracy of which can meet the requirements of operational meteorological service to the government and farmers.

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張利華,任曙霞,張永強,仲維建,張仁祖,王靜.梨樹始花期預報[J].氣象科技,2012,40(3):485~488

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  • 收稿日期:2010-11-22
  • 定稿日期:2011-03-01
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  • 在線發布日期: 2012-05-31
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