轉折性天氣降水預報檢驗方法及應用
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淮河流域氣象開放研究基金項目(HRM200902)、江蘇省氣象科研開放基金項目(200907)資助


A Method for Verifying Precipitation Prediction of Transition Weather
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    摘要:

    采用轉折性天氣降水檢驗評估方法,從轉折天氣預報能力的角度評價了模式降水預報能力。對全球中期T213、日本和德國數值預報模式在2006年9月至2008年8月的降水預報檢驗評估分析表明:轉折天氣降水預報能力檢驗是目前降水檢驗方法的有效補充。3種模式的轉折天氣降水預報能力隨著預報時效的延長,存在逐漸遞減的趨勢;短期預報能力分析,T213和日本模式春季最好,而德國模式是夏季最好;48 h預報分析,T213和日本模式在長江中下游、華北及東北等部分地區、德國模式在四川盆地和華南部分地區預報效果較好。

    Abstract:

    A method for verifying precipitation predication of transition weather is developed. It focuses on the evaluation of the performance of numerical prediction models from the prediction capability for transition weather. The precipitation predictions from several global medium range numerical prediction models (including China, Japan and German) are selected and verified by using this method during the period from September 2006 to August 2008. The verification results show that the method is an effective complement to the currently used precipitation prediction verification methods. The forecast skills for transition weather tend to decrease with the growth of leadtime. The short range forecast skill analysis indicates that T213 and JMA global models perform better in spring and the German model is the best in summer. But for 48 hour prediction, results are different, depending on the forecast areas. For example, T213 and the JMA model perform better in the middle lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in some parts of North and Northeast China. The German model performs best in Sichuan Basin and South China.

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張冰,魏建蘇,王文蘭,張備.轉折性天氣降水預報檢驗方法及應用[J].氣象科技,2012,40(3):411~416

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2010-11-15
  • 定稿日期:2010-12-28
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  • 在線發布日期: 2012-05-31
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