基于相似預報法的寧夏雷電潛勢預報業務系統
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中國氣象局氣象技術集成應用項目“基于MICAPS系統的寧夏中短期預報方法集成”(CMAJG2011M56)、“寧夏短臨災害天氣監測預警技術集成”(CMAGJ 2012 M53)”、中國氣象局新技術推廣項目“相似離度法在寧夏雷電潛勢預報方法中的研究應用”(CMATG2008Y11)資助


Operational System of Thunder/Lightning Potential Forecasting Based on Similar Deviation for Ningxia
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    摘要:

    以寧夏雷暴、閃電觀測資料和ECMWF、T213數值預報產品為基礎,采用VB、VC語言和MS SQL Server數據庫等編程技術,研制開發了基于相似預報法的寧夏雷電潛勢預報業務系統。系統在客觀形勢相似和影響系統判別的基礎上進行物理量相似離度分析,可提供0~168 h環流形勢和物理量相似預報結果,并以相似離度最小的前10(20)個最佳相似個例中的一個作為預報藍本,以人機交互的方式完成0~12 h雷電潛勢預報的制作與分發,增強了雷電潛勢預報的客觀化和自動化;實現了歷史雷電數據的查詢、統計、輸出、保存、添加入庫及閃電信息的統計顯示等功能,成為寧夏雷電潛勢預報制作發布的主要工作平臺。

    Abstract:

    The operational system for thunder/lightning potential forecasting based on similar deviation is established by using VB and VC programming languages and MS SQL Server Database, on the basis of the thunder/lightning observation data of Ningxia and the forecasting products of ECMWF and T213. This operational system can give a similar discrimination of physical factors based on the objectively analogue circulation and affecting system automatic recognition. It can produce the forecasting results of circulation patterns and physical quantities in the coming 168 hours, in which the first 10/20 cases with minimum similar deviation were used as the “blueprint” for forecasting; and the system can also accomplish the making and distribution of thunder/lightning potential forecasting products by humanmachine interaction, which enhances the objectivity and automation of the thunder/lightning potential forecasting system. Moreover, it has the functions of thunder/lightning data querying, calculating, outputting, saving, loading, displaying, and so on. This system has become the main operational platform for the making and distribution of thunder/lightning potential forecasting in Ningxia.

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紀曉玲,胡文東,穆建華,楊侃,陳曉娟,辛堯勝,馬篩艷.基于相似預報法的寧夏雷電潛勢預報業務系統[J].氣象科技,2012,40(2):304~309

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  • 收稿日期:2010-08-05
  • 定稿日期:2011-02-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2012-04-23
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