1961—2008年淮河流域主汛期極端降水事件分析
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安徽省地方標準項目“氣候年景等級”和國家自然科學基金項目(41105080)資助


Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events in Rainy Season over Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to 2008
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    摘要:

    利用淮河流域117個臺站1961-2008年主汛期(6-8月)逐日降水資料,采用降水百分位數法劃分極端降水閾值,建立極端降水事件時間序列;在此基礎上揭示淮河流域極端主汛期降水事件時空演變特征。結果表明:淮河流域主汛期極端降水總量年際變化大,其強弱與旱澇格局基本對應。極端降水事件發生頻次的多寡很大程度上影響著淮河流域主汛期降水量。一致性分布是淮河流域主汛期極端降水事件發生頻次的最主要空間模態,其發生頻次空間上可分為流域中東部、中北部、西南部、西北部及南部5個主要區域。極端降水事件總體上有增加趨勢,特別是流域

    Abstract:

    Using the daily precipitation data of rainy season (June to August) from 1961 to 2008 of 117 stations over the Huaihe River Basin, the extreme precipitation thresholds are determined for different stations by means of the percentile method, and then the time series of extreme precipitation events in recent 48 years is constructed, by which the characteristics of temporalspatial variations of extreme precipitation events are analyzed. The results show that the interannual variation of extreme precipitation is remarkable over the Huaihe River Basin in rainy season, and the amount of extreme precipitation corresponds well with the droughts and floods. The frequency of extreme precipitation events greatly affects the amount of total precipitation in rainy season. The consistency distribution is the main spatial mode in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in the Huaihe River Basin, which can be divided into five main regions: central and eastern, central and north, southwest, northwest, and southern. The amount and frequency of extreme precipitation for the Huaihe River Basin have obvious increase trends in general since the 1960s, and the most significant increasing tendency occurred in the central and western Huaihe River Basin in particular. There are periodic variations of 2 to 3 years in the frequency of extreme precipitation events over the Huaihe River basin in rainy season. There occurred an abrupt change around 2003, and the frequency of extreme precipitation events increased significantly at a significant level of 0.05 since 2003.

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王勝,田紅,徐敏,謝五三,陶寅.1961—2008年淮河流域主汛期極端降水事件分析[J].氣象科技,2012,40(1):87~91

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  • 收稿日期:2010-06-22
  • 定稿日期:2011-03-01
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  • 在線發布日期: 2012-02-20
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