石家莊市紫外線監測分析及預報方法
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Analysis of Ultraviolet Ray Monitoring Data in Shijiazhuang and Prediction Method
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    摘要:

    利用2006—2008年石家莊市紫外線監測數據,分析了近3年紫外線輻射特征,結果表明:石家莊市紫外線等級1~4級之間,其中1級的日數有175天,2級251天,3級220天,4級432天,年平均日數分別為58、84、73天和144天。紫外線指數“較強”級別出現的頻率最高,“中等”以上日數占603%,說明石家莊屬于紫外線輻射較強的地區。春夏兩季紫外線輻射最強,秋季次之,冬季最弱。紫外線輻射具有明顯的日變化特征,呈向下開口的單峰拋物線狀分布。通過相關分析法確定了影響紫外線輻射的主要氣象因子,并運用多元回歸方法建立了不同季節紫外線指數預報方程。檢驗發現4個方程對各季節預報效果良好,各季預報準確率均超過50%,其中秋冬季最好,預報準確率高達70%以上,可以用作日常紫外線預報業務。

    Abstract:

    Using the ultraviolet ray monitoring data from 2006 to 2008 in Shijiazhuang, the characteristics of the ultraviolet radiation in the past three years are analyzed. The results show that the UV levels of Shijiazhuang ranged from Level 1 to Level 4, corresponding to 175, 251, 220, and 432 for the number of days, respectively. The relatively high level occurred most frequently, and the moderate level and higher accounted for 60.3%, which means that Shijiazhuang is an area with relatively highlevel ultraviolet radiation. The ultraviolet radiation was the strongest in spring and summer and the weakest in winter. The diurnal cycle of the ultraviolet radiation was very obvious, with a singlepeak distribution. The main meteorological factors that affect ultraviolet radiation are determined through correlation analysis. The ultraviolet index forecast equation containing a number of weather factors is established by using the multiple regression method. The accuracy rate of the equations for various seasons was above 50%, with the best accuracy rate being over 70% for autumn and winter. The equations could be used in operational ultraviolet index forecasting.

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曲曉黎,張彥恒,趙娜,袁媛.石家莊市紫外線監測分析及預報方法[J].氣象科技,2011,39(6):731~735

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  • 收稿日期:2010-07-12
  • 定稿日期:2010-11-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2011-12-21
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