在數值預報產品(MM5)的基礎上,建立了華北高速公路沿線及鄰近460個氣象站的高影響天氣—霧的統計預報模型。抽樣檢驗系統運行2年多來所積累的預報和實況資料的結果表明,北京24 h能見度〖WTBX〗V〖WTBZ〗≤5 km 預報的年臨界成功指數(CSI:Critical Success Index)為061,京津塘高速公路沿線的7個站為068。北京和京津唐高速公路沿線有、無霧預報準確率均為081。對2007年的兩次低能見度預報過程的檢驗表明,該方法有一定的預報能力。
Abstract:
Based on numerical forecast products (MM5), a fog forecast model is established with the statistical method for highways and the nearby 460 weather stations in North China. The results of the verification for more than 2 years show that CSI (Critical Success Index) for visibility being less than 5 km for 24 hours forecast is 0.61 at Beijing and 0.68 at 7 stations along the JingJinTang highway, respectively.The mean fogornot forecast accuracy rates are both 0.81. Two events of low visibility weather in 2007 are discussed and forecasted successfully, which indicates the method is applicable for fog forecasting.