1951—2008年吉林市氣候變化特征
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Tends of Climate Change in Jilin from 1951 to 2008
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    摘要:

    應用滑動平均、滑動變異系數等方法對吉林市1951—2008年氣溫和降水量進行了分析。結果發現:吉林市氣溫呈上升趨勢,平均氣溫增溫速率比全國高010 ℃/10a,但比東北區低003 ℃/10a;降水總體呈減少的趨勢,春季降水有增長的趨勢,夏季降水目前處于少雨段,秋季降水變化不明顯,冬季降雪呈逐漸遞增的趨勢;降水的變率明顯高于氣溫的變率,冬季降雪變率明顯高于夏季降水。NCEP再分析資料統計分析發現:冷冬年東亞大槽維持時間較長;暖冬年東亞大槽較弱且偏東。多雨年較少雨年副高偏強偏北,貝加爾湖有低壓異常,東北地區異常偏南氣流強盛。

    Abstract:

    With the methods of moving average and moving variance, an analysis is made of the temperature and precipitation over Jilin from 1951 to 2008. The results show that temperature over Jilin tends to ascend, with the average temperature ascending speed being 0.10 ℃/10a greater than that over the whole China, but 0.03 ℃/10a lower than that over Northeast China. Annual precipitation tends to decrease overall. Precipitation in spring shows a tendency of ascending, while precipitation in summer shows a decreasing tendency at present. There is no obvious change in precipitation in autumn, and there is a gradual increase tendency in snowy in winter. The variability of precipitations was obviously greater than that of temperature, and the variability of snow in winter was obviously greater than that of rainfall in summer. 〖JP2〗The analysis of NCEP data shows that the trough of East Asia lasted for a longer time in cold winters, while the trough of East Asia was weaker and a little eastward in warm winters. In wet years, the subtropical high over West Pacific was stronger and more northward, and there was a significant abnormal low in the areas around Lake Baikal, with the strong farther southern flow over Northeast China.

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徐興波,韓慶紅,任曉峰,高玉龍.1951—2008年吉林市氣候變化特征[J].氣象科技,2011,39(5):575~581

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  • 收稿日期:2010-05-31
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