基于衛星云參數的短時降水動態估測方法
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Dynamical Estimation of ShortTime Precipitation from Satellite Cloud Parameters
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    摘要:

    利用實時FY2靜止氣象衛星紅外云圖和區域中尺度地面自動監測網加密降水資料,通過對云圖進行參數化處理,采用動態相關方法分析長波紅外分裂窗雙譜組合、長波紅外水汽雙譜組合、亮溫面積等各類衛星云參數與不同級別降水強度的關系,尋找當時與降水強度的最佳相關云參數化因子建立短時降水動態估測模型,并利用實時最新降水估測模型對未來3 h降水進行估測預報應用。模型估測的降水分布與實際降水分布比較接近,短時強降水中心估測與實況基本吻合,但在高山地形條件下降水估測值略偏小。

    Abstract:

    Based on the hourly infrared cloud images from the geostationary meteorological satellite (FY2) and the enhanced precipitation observation from the regional mesoscale surface automatic weather observation network, through the parameterization of cloud images, the relationship between cloud parameters and precipitation rate of different categories are analyzed by using the dynamical correlation method. The cloud parameters include the twoband combination of longwave infrared and splitwindow, the twoband combination of longwave infrared and water vapor, and brightness temperature, etc. Through the above analysis, a dynamical estimation model of precipitation nowcasting is built based on the optimal correlation between precipitation rate and related cloud parameters. The new estimation model was applied in real time to threehour precipitation forecast. The distribution of forecasted precipitation is similar to that from observation. The precipitation centers are roughly in agreement with the observed centers, but the estimated precipitation rates are lower than the observed in high mountain areas.

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洪毅,袁德輝,柳岳清,高萍.基于衛星云參數的短時降水動態估測方法[J].氣象科技,2011,39(3):266~271

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  • 收稿日期:2010-02-01
  • 定稿日期:2010-08-05
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