臺風“莫拉克”路徑診斷分析和模擬
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浙江氣象科技開放研究專項(KF2006009)資助


Diagnosis and Simulation of Track of Typhoon Morakot
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    摘要:

    利用客觀分析資料和數值模擬方法分析了0908號臺風“莫拉克”穿越臺灣島前后在路徑上出現的北翹、西折現象以及進入臺灣海峽后移動異常緩慢的原因。結果表明:①臺風靠近臺灣島后西太平洋副高減弱東撤,引導氣流明顯減弱,臺風減速;臺風進入臺灣海峽后,北側高壓帶的斷裂和隨后的重新連接加強是其路徑偏北轉向和移動緩慢的主因。②“莫拉克”存在與另外兩個熱帶氣旋“天鵝”和“艾濤”逆時針互旋的雙臺風效應,“艾濤”生成發展還延緩了副高加強西伸。③臺灣島地形敏感性試驗表明,地形造成氣壓場西密東疏的非對稱分布致使臺風減速;地形誘生低壓的發生發展使得臺風在穿越臺灣島時出現了西折現象。④臺風有向正變渦區和暖濕區移動的趨勢,正變渦中心、正相當位溫中心和臺風中心連線與未來北翹和西折移向基本吻合,這在短時臺風路徑預報中具有指示意義。

    Abstract:

    The causes of abrupt northward shifting, westward turning and extremely slow moving after entering the Taiwan Strait of Typhoon Morakot (0908) are analyzed by using the objective analysis data and numerical simulation methods. The results show: (1) The weakening and eastward withdrawing of the western Pacific subtropical high when the Typhoon moved close to the Taiwan Island made the typhoon slow down for its steering current obviously weakened. After the Typhoon entering the Taiwan Strait, the splitting, the subsequent rebuilding and the reinforcement are the main causes for its northward recurving and slow movement. (2) Typhoon Morakot has the Fujiwara effect of anticlockwise revolving around Typhoon Goni and Etau. Meanwhile, and the formation and development of Typhoon Etau delayed the westward extending of the western Pacific subtropical high. (3) Sensitivity tests to the Taiwan Island orography indicate that the terrain resulted in the asymmetric distribution of the pressure field, dense on the west and sparse on the east, and that the formation of a topographic low made the typhoon turn westward while traversing the Taiwan Island. (4) Typhoons tend to move towards the positive vorticity variation and warm/wet areas. The connecting line between positive vorticity variation center, positive equivalent potential temperature center, and typhoon center coincides with the direction of the typhoon’s abrupt Northward shifting and westward turning afterwards, which has denotative meaning for the shortrange forecast of typhoon tracks.

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張建海,黃漢中,何勇.臺風“莫拉克”路徑診斷分析和模擬[J].氣象科技,2011,39(2):182~189

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  • 收稿日期:2009-11-10
  • 定稿日期:2010-09-02
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