近50年安徽省暴雨氣候特征
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中國氣象局氣象災害風險區劃試點建設項目子項目“安徽省洪澇災害風險區劃研究”資助


Climate Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall in Recent 50 Years over Anhui Province
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    摘要:

    利用安徽省71個臺站1961—2008年近50年的逐日降水資料,統計出每年各站暴雨量及暴雨次數,通過趨勢分析、EOF分析、功率譜分析、小波分析、MannKendall突變檢驗等方法分析安徽省暴雨氣候特征。結果表明:安徽省常年暴雨量呈緯向空間分布,常年暴雨次數與其分布非常一致,暴雨量及暴雨站次最多出現在6月下旬和7月上旬;全省絕大部分地區的暴雨量呈現上升趨勢,上升幅度較大的地區集中在淮北西部及江南南部,但絕大部分地區未通過顯著性檢驗;暴雨量距平場EOF第1模態全省一致為正,大值區位于安徽西南部,第2模態表明南北暴雨量呈現相反的分布,北多(少)南少(多),第3模態表明安徽暴雨量有南北多(少)中部少(多)的分布特征;暴雨量存在9~10年的主周期,此外還存在3年左右的次周期,在9~10年的時間尺度上,近50年安徽暴雨量經歷了由多到少5個循環交替;在1978年前后暴雨量存在一次突變,1979—2008年年均暴雨量比1961—1978年年均值增加了583 mm。

    Abstract:

    By using the daily precipitation data from 71 stations in Anhui province from 1961 to 2008, the precipitation amount and frequency of annual heavy rainfall are calculated for every station, and then the climatic characteristics of heavy rainfall over Anhui Province are analyzed by such methods as trend analysis, EOF, power spectrum analysis, wavelet analysis, MannKendall test, and so on. The results show that the distribution of heavy rainfall from 1971 to 2000, in accordance with the distribution of the frequency, shows a latitudinal pattern; the high amount and frequency of heavy rainfall appeared mostly around the end of June and the beginning of July. The heavy rainfall in most parts of Anhui had an increase trend, with the highvalue areas in the western Huaibei and the southern Jiangnan regions. The values of first mode of EOF were positive in all the province, with high values in the southwest of Anhui. The second mode of EOF indicates that the distributions of heavy rainfall in the South and North are contrary, greater in the North and less in the south. The third mode of EOF indicates that heavy rainfall was greater in both South and North, and less in the central part. There were periodic variations with the main periods being 9 to 10 years and the secondary period of about 3 years. The heavy rainfall in recent 50 years in Anhui experienced five cycles in the 9 to 10 year time scale. There was a mutation around 1978, and the average rainfall from 1979 to 2008 is 583 mm higher than the average from 1961 to 1978.

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謝五三,田紅.近50年安徽省暴雨氣候特征[J].氣象科技,2011,39(2):160~164

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  • 收稿日期:2010-01-06
  • 定稿日期:2010-02-20
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