年最大日雨量極值分布擬合與推算
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云南省氣象局課題(D200816)資助


Fitting and Estimation of Extreme Value Distribution of Annual Diurnal Maximum Rainfall
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    摘要:

    采用紅河州12個站近48~58年的年最大日雨量資料,用Pearson Ⅲ型分布、耿貝爾分布、對數正態分布等3種概率分布模型分別進行了擬合,選擇擬合最好的分布模型來估算最大給定重現期極值。結果表明:3種分布均能較好地擬合年最大日雨量的分布,在紅河州12個站的擬合中,有7個站用耿貝爾分布,4個站用PearsonⅢ分布,1個站用對數正態分布擬合最佳,且通過了顯著性水平α=005的χ2擬合優度檢驗。對于不同的給定重現期,紅河州年最大日雨量極值分布形勢均極為相似,最大值和最小值中心一致,均表現出南高北低的特征,最大中心位于最南端的河口,最小中心位于紅河州中部一線。

    Abstract:

    Based on the annual maximum diurnal rainfall data from 12 metrological stations over Honghe of Yunnan Province in the recent 48 to 58 years, the extreme value distribution of annual maximum diurnal rainfall is fitted with the PearsonⅢ distribution, Gumbel distribution, and logarithmic distribution, and their extreme values at various reappearance periods are calculated by the best probability distribution. The results show that these three probability distribution models can fit well the distribution of annual maximum diurnal rainfall; the fitting results with Gumbel distribution are the best for 7 stations, PearsonⅢ distribution for 4 stations, and lognormal distribution for 1 stations, and they all reached the standards of significance test. For various given reappearance periods, the distribution characteristics of annual maximum diurnal rainfall over Honghe are very similar, and maximum and minimum centers are consistent, higher in South and lower in north.

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尹文有,鄭皎,王繼紅,程林.年最大日雨量極值分布擬合與推算[J].氣象科技,2011,39(2):137~140

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  • 收稿日期:2009-12-28
  • 定稿日期:2010-06-26
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