春季低溫連陰雨災害對農作物產量影響評估
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信陽市農業應用技術推廣項目“春季低溫連陰雨預報模型在農業生產中的應用研究”(XYS2009021)資助


Method for Estimating Impact of Spring LowTemperature and ContinuousRain Disasters on Crop Yields
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    摘要:

    依據河南省春季低溫連陰雨災害標準,對信陽市1971—2007年春季達到低溫連陰雨過程標準的氣象資料,分別從3月低溫上,4月低溫、連陰雨以及低溫連陰雨,5月連陰雨等不同的致災因子持續時間長短、對農作物造成危害程度的大小,將其劃分3成個不同的災害等級。用拉格朗日插值法計算作物的期望產量,用分離法將春季低溫連陰雨災害對作物造成的損失分離出來。結果發現,不同時段的春季低溫連陰雨對水稻、小麥、油菜和茶葉造成的危害程度是不同的,以4月低溫連陰雨和5月連陰雨危害最大。定量評估春季低溫連陰雨災害損失對防災減災和政府決策具有十分重要意義。

    Abstract:

    A quantitative assessment is made of the economic loss of main crops, including rice, wheat, rape and tea, resulted from the spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disasters in Xinyang, Henan Province, according to the standard definition of the spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disaster, by means of the related meteorological data from 1971 to 2007. The spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disasters are divided into three levels, based on the durations and harmfulness of disaster inducing factors, such as low temperature in March, “low temperature+continuous rain+low temperaturecontinuousrain” in April, and continuousrain in May. The expected crop yields and the disaster loss rates are calculated with the separation method based on Lagrange interpolation theory. The results show that the spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disasters have different impacts during the different periods in spring on rice, wheat, rape, and tea, most harmful in April and May. It is of great significance to carry out the damage assessment of spring lowtemperature and continuousrain disasters for the disaster prevention/mitigation and decisionmaking of governments at all levels.

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趙輝,王媛,李剛,馬振升,劉佳.春季低溫連陰雨災害對農作物產量影響評估[J].氣象科技,2011,39(1):102~105

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  • 收稿日期:2009-08-25
  • 定稿日期:2010-01-19
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