潮州市近53年氣溫變化特征
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Characteristics of Temperature Change for 53 Years in Chaozhou
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    摘要:

    利用潮州市饒平地面氣象觀測站1956—2008年氣溫觀測資料,運用線性傾向估計、MannKendal突變檢驗、小波分析和累積距平等分析方法對近53年來溫度變化的主要特征進行分析。結果表明,近53年來平均氣溫呈增加趨勢,線性增溫速率017 ℃/10a,突變點在1994年,其主振蕩周期的時間尺度為18年;季節溫度變化最顯著特點為冬季增溫最明顯,突變出現時間最早,在1987年,其次是秋季、夏季,最后是春季,突變點在1994、1995年附近;據季節溫度振蕩主周期判斷,在大的時間尺度上各季節目前均處于偏暖期,但較小尺度上(2~4年),夏、秋季目前處于偏暖期,冬、春季處于偏冷期;1990年至今,大于等于0 ℃、10 ℃的活動積溫處于回升階段。

    Abstract:

    Based on the air temperature data of meteorological stations from 1956 to 2008,the characteristics of temperature change in Chaozhou for recent 53 years are studied, by using the lineartrend estimate, MannKendall catastrophe test, wavelet analysis, and accumulative anomaly methods. The results indicate that annual average temperature had an obviously increasing tendency during the 53 years,and increased by 0.17 ℃ per 10 years; the mutation point was in 1994, and the main period of temperature oscillation was 18 years; the most notable feature of seasonal temperature change was warming in winter, with mutation occurred the earliest in 1987, followed by autumn, summer, and spring, with mutation point being in 1994 and 1995. According to the main periods of seasonal temperature change, at a large time scale, the present time is mainly in the warmer period, and at smaller time scales, summer and autumn in the warmer period, while winter and spring in the cooler period. The active accumulative temperature of greater than 0 ℃ and greater than 10 ℃ had significant upward trends since 1990.

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丁麗佳,鄭有飛,王春林,凌良新.潮州市近53年氣溫變化特征[J].氣象科技,2011,39(1):44~49

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  • 收稿日期:2009-11-30
  • 定稿日期:2010-02-02
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