南?!鞅碧窖蠹撅L槽中熱帶氣旋異?;顒犹卣?/div>
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江蘇省氣象災害重點實驗室開放課題(KLME0708)、國家自然科學基金項目(90915002、40775047、40775058)、福建省科技廳青年人才項目(2007F3019)資助


Characteristics of TC Abnormal Activities in SCSWNP Monsoon Trough
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    摘要:

    應用1979—2005年的臺風資料和NCEP/DOE AMIPⅡ再分析資料,分析了生成于南?!鞅碧窖蠹撅L槽中的熱帶氣旋(MTTC)活動特征及季風槽強弱對MTTC異常的影響。結果表明:①1979—2005年5—10月南海和西北太平洋生成的熱帶氣旋(TC)共有672個,年平均24.9個,其中MTTC為491個,占73.1%,占登陸中國TC頻數的79.2 %。②27年間MTTC年頻數經歷了正常期(1979—1987年)—多臺期(1988—1994年)—少臺期(1995—2005年)3個階段;具有準4年和準2年的變化周期,1994年為MTTC頻數由多臺向少臺轉換的轉折點。③MTTC頻數異常年份,MTTC生成起止日期和生成位置有明顯差異:MTTC異常偏少(多)年,MTTC活動起始日期較晚(早),且5—10月皆不活躍(活躍),MTTC生成海區范圍較?。ù螅"苣虾!鞅碧窖蠹撅L槽強度和位置異常與MTTC活動異常密切相關。

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    Based on the typhoon data and NCEP/DOE AMIPII reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005, a study is performed of the behaviors of tropical cyclones generated in the monsoon trough (MTTC) in the South China Sea (SCS) and western North Pacific (WNP) as well as the effects of the monsoon trough intensity on MTTC. Analysis suggests: (1) The total number of tropical cyclones (TCs) is 672 over the SouthChina Sea and the western North Pacific during May to October from 1979 to 2005, of which MTTC is 491, making up 73.1% of the total and 79.2% of the onland typhoons. The grasp of the regularity of MTTCs activities means the grasp of the principal regularity of the western North Pacific TCs, which are TCs mainly affecting China. (2) During this period, the annual occurrence frequency variation of MTTCs experienced three stages: normal (1979 to 1987), more MTTCs (1988 to 1994), and fewer MTTCs (1995 to 2005); there was periodic variation in MTTC with quasifouryear and quasitwoyear periods, with 1994 being the turning point. (3) In the years of anomalous MTTCs, there was great difference in onset/ending dates and generation positions. In the years of fewer/more MTTCs, in comparison with the mean condition, MTCCs started later (earlier) and continued to be in inactive (active) phase from May to October with a smaller (larger) generation area. (4) The monsoon trough intensity and position affect greatly the generation position and annual number of MTTCs.

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高建蕓,彭云峰,鮑瑞娟,張秀芝.南?!鞅碧窖蠹撅L槽中熱帶氣旋異?;顒犹卣鱗J].氣象科技,2011,39(1):19~26

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  • 收稿日期:2009-08-07
  • 定稿日期:2010-05-26
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