十一運會期間山東降水分級預報研究
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山東省氣象局重點課題(2010sdqxz10)資助


Graded Precipitation Forecasting during 11th Chinese National Games in Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    利用常規天氣圖、數值模擬結果和NCEP再分析資料,對2001—2008年山東秋季91次降水過程進行分析,研究了低槽冷鋒、氣旋、臺風、切變線、高空冷渦與橫槽、南支槽等6類影響系統的形勢特點。針對降水量級預報這一難點,對影響系統造成的降水進行分量級分析,研究同類天氣系統造成不同量級降水的形勢特點、物理量特征和預報著眼點,為第十一屆全國運動會降水的精細化預報提供依據,也可作為實際業務中降水量級預報之參考。

    Abstract:

    By means of the conventional weather charts, numerical simulation results and NCEP reanalysis data, 91 autumn precipitation events in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2008 are analyzed. The influencing factors, including lowtrough cold front, cyclone, typhoon, shear line, upper cold vortex, transversal trough, and southern trough, are also studied. In order to tackle the difficulty in graded precipitation forecasting, the precipitation induced by certain influencing weather systems are graded, and then the circulation features, the physical characteristics, and forecasting hints for certain grade precipitation induced by the same weather system are studied. The results provided reference for the refined precipitation forecast during the 11th Chinese National Games, and can also be used for reference in precipitation prediction service.

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閻麗鳳,孫興池,萬明波,李靜,楊明.十一運會期間山東降水分級預報研究[J].氣象科技,2010,38(增刊):13~23

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  • 收稿日期:2010-07-12
  • 定稿日期:2010-10-12
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