內蒙古地區采暖期變化特征及預測方法
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中國氣象局新技術推廣項目“采暖能耗定量影響氣候評價方法研究與應用”(CMATG2008M34)資助


Variation Characteristics and Prediction Method of Heating Periods in Inner Mongolia
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    摘要:

    利用內蒙古地區58個站點1961—2008年逐日平均氣溫資料,用數理統計等分析方法,參照采暖供熱等相關規范,綜合分析了內蒙古地區采暖期各要素變化特征,初步提出了采暖初日、終日和采暖期能源需求預測模型,并經過檢驗與實況基本相符。結果表明:①近48年內蒙古地區采暖初日推后、終日提前、采暖期縮短,說明隨著氣候變暖,內蒙古地區冬季變暖,寒冷期縮短。②內蒙古地區采暖期要素的變化與緯度的高低密切相關。緯度越高,采暖期縮短越多,使表征采暖能耗多少的采暖度日值減少越明顯,采暖期能源消耗越少,節能減排潛力越大。③隨著氣候變暖,內蒙古地區冬季寒冷程度和寒冷期變短,采暖能源需求量減少,采暖能耗降低,其集中供熱強度和耗熱量降低,從而可減少CO2、CH4、SO2等溫室氣體的排放強度。④采暖起止日、采暖長度以及采暖期能源需求與氣溫變化密切相關。由此構建的采暖初日、終日和能源需求預測模型,可信度較高,可根據月動力延伸預報產品,提早做出不同地區采暖起止日期和采暖期能源需求趨勢預測,減少能源的浪費,為供熱部門科學決策提供參考。

    Abstract:

    By means of the daily temperature during the period of 1961 to 2008 in Inner Mongolia and the mathematics statistics method, making reference to correlative regulation, the variation characteristics of various elements in heating periods are analyzed and the prediction model of the first day, last day and energy needs in a heating period is devised and tested. It is concluded that:(1) With climate warming, the dates of the first day of the heating period were delayed, and the dates of the last day of the heating period advanced; the heating period became shorter. It indicates the warmer and shorter winter in Inner Mongolia. (2) The variation of the elements in heating periods is closely related to the latitude across Inner Mongolia: the higher the latitude, the shorter the heating period, the lower the energy consumption, and the greater the emission reduction potential. (3) With the climate warming, because the shorter heating period and reduced energy needs and energy consumption, the emission of the greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 and SO2 was reduced. (4) The variations of the elements in heating period were also closely related to temperature change.

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白美蘭,郝潤全,李喜倉,邸瑞琦,楊晶,劉宏偉.內蒙古地區采暖期變化特征及預測方法[J].氣象科技,2010,38(6):709~714

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  • 收稿日期:2010-02-23
  • 定稿日期:2010-05-12
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