基于經驗模態分解的西安市空氣質量預報訂正方法
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陜西省氣象局研究型業務基金科研項目(2010M18)資助


Correcting Rules for Xian Urban Air Quality Forecasts with Empirical Mode Decomposition
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    摘要:

    為提高城市空氣質量預報的準確率,研制了針對數值預報模式CAPPS2的訂正方法,對2001—2007年西安市逐日PM10、SO2、NO2濃度均值和相應的降水、風速作經驗模態分解(EMD)分析,用最大熵譜方法檢驗各本征模態函數(IMF)周期,計算其方差貢獻率,制定訂正方法并進行數值試驗。結果表明: PM10濃度波動以周尺度為主,有明顯周末效應,與主要清除過程匹配較好;SO2、NO2濃度波動與主要清除過程不同步;基于周末效應的訂正規則對PM10、SO2訂正效果較理想,對NO2訂正效果不確定。

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    The daily average concentrations of PM10,SO2,NO2 and meteorological factors (precipitation and wind) of the corresponding time from 2001 to 2007 in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, are analyzed with Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). The periods are tested and the variance contribution rates are calculated of each intrinsic mode function (IMF) by the maximum entropy spectral analysis as well, for improving the accuracy rate of the urban air quality forecast system (CAPPS2) and instituting the correcting rules for the numerical forecast model. The results show: the main period of PM10 concentration fluctuation is about a week, has clear weekendeffect, and matches well with major scavenging process, but the concentration fluctuations of SO2 and NO2 do not synchronize the scavenging processes, suggesting that the pollution of Xi’an is emissionguided, and the correction rules based on the weekendeffect are ideal for the improvement of PM10 and SO2 numerical forecast results, and uncertain for NO2.

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毛明策,王繁強,王琦.基于經驗模態分解的西安市空氣質量預報訂正方法[J].氣象科技,2010,38(6):679~683

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  • 收稿日期:2010-03-23
  • 定稿日期:2010-10-15
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