利用衛星產品評估數值預報模式云層垂直結構
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國家科技基礎條件平臺建設項目“氣象科學數據共享中心”(2005DKA31700)、氣象行業科研專項項目“中國氣候系統協同觀測與預測研究”(GYHY(QX)200765)和國家自然科學基金(40701112)共同資助


Evaluation of Cloud Vertical Layer Structure in NWP Model with Satellite Products
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    摘要:

    對云層垂直結構的準確參數化描述是數值天氣預報模式準確計算長短波輻射通量、輻射加熱率廓線、云反射率、云輻射效應等參數的重要基礎,但地基觀測數據無法對模式預報的云層垂直分層情況進行驗證。文章基于衛星資料Collection 5版本的MODIS云產品MOD06,利用國際上能夠較準確判別云層垂直分層的一個新算法,以反演的高、中、低云發生頻率和云頂氣壓結果,評估美國國家環境預報中心(NCEP)北美中尺度模式NAM的云層垂直結構。2006年7~10月北美地區(153°~48°W,12°~62°N)的評估結果表明:①衛星反演和模式預報的高、中、低云的云量區域分布比較相似,尤其是高云。熱帶太平洋地區模式預報高云量大于衛星反演值。模式預報的低云在墨西哥及北美大陸、大西洋地區更多。②衛星反演和模式預報中云發生頻率的差異最小,模式預報高云和低云發生頻率峰值比衛星反演的峰值更大,且云頂出現的高度更高。③模式預報中云量和低云量的緯度平均值比衛星反演的高,尤其是低云量。NAM的云參數化有待于進一步改進。

    Abstract:

    Accurate description of the cloud vertical layer structure is of primary importance for the Numerical Weather Prediction Model to get accurate parameters like longwave, shortwave radiation fluxes, radiation heating rate profile, cloud reflection, cloud radiation effect. However, the cloud vertical structure can not be validated by the data observed on the ground. The occurrence frequencies of high, middle, low clouds and cloud top pressure retrieved from a uptodate algorithm (classifying cloud vertical layer structure), applied with MODIS cloud product MOD06 (Collection 5), are used to evaluate the results from the NCEP North American Mesoscale model (NAM). The evaluation results from the scope of (153° to 48°W, 12° to 62°N), July to October, 2006 show: (1) The distribution patterns of high, middle, and low clouds retrieved from satellite products and model are similar, especially for high clouds. Over the tropical Pacific, the model shows greater high cloud amount than the satellite scene. The model data shows much more low cloud cover over Mexico, the North American continent, and the Atlantic Ocean, and the middle cloud cover is less than high cloud cover. (2) There is the least difference in the occurrence frequencies of middle clouds between satellite retrieval and model results. Peaks for high and low clouds seen in NAM outputs are sharper and higher than those from the satellite retrieval. (3) The latitudemean middle and low cloud amounts from the model are greater than those generated form the satellite retrieval and more noticeably for low clouds. The cloud parameterization in NCEP NAM needs to be improved.

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王旻燕.利用衛星產品評估數值預報模式云層垂直結構[J].氣象科技,2010,38(4):403~408

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  • 收稿日期:2009-06-15
  • 定稿日期:2010-04-29
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