Because of the scarcity of serious lightning samples，statistical methods cannot be used in analysis.Taking Fujian Province as an example，analyzed is the variation tendency of lightning disasters from 2000 to 2006， aiming to predict serious lightning disasters using the information diffusion technique.The results show that the total frequency of lightning disasters presented an increasing tendency， but the frequency of serious lightning disasters did not change obviously.There usually are 27 to 40 serious lightning disasters each year in Fujian Province， and the probability of the accumulated frequency being less than 20 times or more than 45 times is almost negligible.The occurrence probability of serious lightning disasters being more than 34 times is about once every two years，and that of more than 42 times lightning disaster and once every ten years.