中國春季沙塵暴年代際變化和季節預測
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國家自然科學基金委重點項目(90711003)和中國氣象局行業專項重點項目(GYHY200706005)共同資助


Interdecadal Variation of Spring Dust Storms in China and Its Seasonal Statistical Forecast
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    摘要:

    利用1954~2007年中國258個臺站觀測的月沙塵暴日數資料,北半球地表溫度和美國NCAR/NCEP大氣再分析資料,研究了中國春季沙塵暴日數年代際變化特征及其影響因子。研究發現:中國春季沙塵暴日數與貝加爾湖地表變暖存在顯著的負相關,相關系數達到-0.8,該地區的地表溫度變暖導致蒙古氣旋活動和我國沙塵暴頻率降低。利用該地區冬季對流層850 hPa溫度與春季地表溫度指數之間顯著正相關關系,建立了冬季850 hPa溫度指數預測中國春季沙塵暴頻率的線性預報方程。通過22年回報檢驗發現,統計預報結果與多數臺站觀測的沙塵暴發生頻率存在顯著的正相關,最大相關系數達到+0.4。其中,近22年的預報場與觀測之間空間相關系數平均達到+0.4以上,均方根誤差在1~2之間,表明該統計預報模型具有一定的業務應用價值。

    Abstract:

    The interdecadal variation of spring dust storm frequency (SDSF) in China and its possible affecting factors are examined on the basis of landsurface air temperature (SAT) and NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed datasets from 1954 to 2007. The results suggest that SDSF is negatively correlated with the SAT significantly around Lake Baikal, where the maximum correlation coefficient is -0.8. The warming around Lake Baikal can reduce the frequency of Mongolian cyclones and resulted in the decrease of SDSF in China over the past decades. It is found that the winter temperature at 850 hPa is positively correlated with the spring SAT significantly around Lake Baikal; therefore, a linear regression model between averaged winter air temperature index over the region of 80°〖KG-*9〗E to 140°〖KG-*9〗E, 40°〖KG-*9〗N to 70°〖KG-*9〗N and SDSF is constructed during a training period of 1954 to 1983. The verification for the hindcast period from 1984 to 2005 suggests that the forecasted DSF is positively correlated with the observation with a maximum correlation coefficient of +0.4; the average Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) is +0.4 with the root mean square error (RMS) being 1 to 2. Such a result implies that this statistical model has a potential capability in the operational seasonal forecasting of SDSF.

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祝從文,徐康,張書萍,郭玲.中國春季沙塵暴年代際變化和季節預測[J].氣象科技,2010,38(2):201~204

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  • 收稿日期:2009-08-21
  • 定稿日期:2009-10-23
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