有利環流形勢下北京降雪空報原因
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Causal Analysis of a False Snowfall Prediction under Favorable Circulation Situation
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    摘要:

    利用常規資料及微波輻射計、風廓線等新型探測資料,分析了2007年2月7日當大尺度環流形勢非常有利并且華北東部地區出現大范圍降雪的情況下,京津地區未產生降水及導致預報失誤的主要原因。大范圍環流形勢演變分析結果表明,700 hPa以上輻合系統前部的偏南氣流將水汽輸送到降水區,且回流冷空氣形成的冷楔和華北倒槽提供了有利的背景條件。弱冷空氣南壓導致倒槽填塞沒有影響京津地區而且邊界層內輻合系統產生的上升氣流較弱是造成京津絕大部分地區未出現降水的原因之一。大濕度區層次高、濕層薄是北京城區沒有降雪的另一重要原因。造成此次降雪空報的主要原因是:數值模式對邊界層相對濕度預報過高,且時效間隔較長、其間的天氣形勢難以判斷;不利于降雪的實況信息顯現得過晚。北京東部個別測站出現降水的可能原因是在短時回流條件具備的同時有高空槽過境,但動力抬升條件差。在較強偏南暖濕氣流提供水汽的同時,海拔高、水汽易于凝結是北京西北部的幾個較高海拔測站出現降雪的原因。

    Abstract:

    Based on the conventional, microwave radiometer,and wind profiler data, the causes of a snowy weather event occurred on 7 February 2007 in Beijing are analyzed. The analysis of the circulation situation shows that the largescale circulation situation was favorable to the snowy weather during the eastward shifting of the middle troposphere convergence system, such as the strong warm southerly airflow and nearsurface conditions, etc, which are similar to the classical model of snowing in Beijing. The causes of the false precipitation prediction for the most part of Beijing include the filling of the inverted trough resulted from the weak southward cold airflow, the weak ascending current in the convergent system in PBL, and the relatively high and thin wet layer. The main reason for the false snowfall prediction is that the location and intensity of weather systems from NWP have obvious bias and longer lead time, and it is difficult for forecasters to judge the weather situation. The precipitation occurred at some stations in the eastern Beijing is mainly induced by the shortterm returning airflow in the condition of abundant vapor while the passing of an upperlevel trough with poor dynamic lifting. Under the favorable condition of abundant vapor provided by the warmwet air flow from south, condensation occurred easily at relatively high altitudes, which is the main reason of snowfall at some highelevation stations over Beijing.

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魏東,廖曉農,楊波.有利環流形勢下北京降雪空報原因[J].氣象科技,2010,38(2):182~188

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  • 收稿日期:2009-03-04
  • 定稿日期:2009-06-12
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