應用雷達拼圖數據估測降水試驗
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973項目“我國南方致洪暴雨監測與預測的理論和方法研究”(2004CB418305)資助


Application Experiment on Quantitative Rainfall Estimation with Radar Mosaic Data
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    摘要:

    利用2008年6月5~7日廣東省新一代天氣雷達網(廣州、梅州、韶關、陽江、深圳及汕頭6部雷達)的雷達原始體掃資料及自動雨量站資料,對廣東省3 km高度上的雷達網系統觀測值差異進行了分析,發現廣州雷達的觀測值比周圍雷達偏高1~3 dBz,梅州雷達比其周圍雷達的觀測值偏低1~2 dBz。用Z〖CD*2〗R關系和最優插值校準法分別進行6 min和1 h估測降水,并用面雨量偏差和均方根誤差對該次降水估測試驗做了簡單評估。結果顯示:6 min定量估測降水,兩種方法都會低估,面雨量越大,估測效果越好;對于1 h定量估測降水,各種估測方法都有偏高或偏低情況,但普遍偏高,其中用先累加再用最優插值校準法校準的雷達〖CD*2〗雨量計聯合估測方法效果最好;短時降水估測可以很好地反映降水過程變化,而長時間降水估測可以較準確估測降水大小。

    Abstract:

    The radar and automatic precipitation station data of 5 to 7 June 2008 from the Guangdong provincial CINRAD network are used, an analysis is carried out of the observation differences of the radar networking system at 3 km over Guangdong Province, and it is discovered that observed values of Guangzhou radar, compared to nearby radar, are generally 1 to 3 dBz higher, and those of Meizhou radar are 1 to 2 dBz lower. With the Z〖CD*2〗R relationship and the optimum interpolation calibrated method, 6minute and 1hour quantitative rainfall estimations are conducted, and a verification is made using the basin average rainfall deviations and the rootmeansquare errors on the estimation effect. It is concluded: in 6minute precipitation estimation, two methods would underestimate precipitation, and the bigger the precipitation, the better the estimation effect is; in 1 hour precipitation estimation, the estimations of the two methods are generally higher, and the results of the radarraingauge estimation method is best, in which progressive accumulation and then calibration are performed; the shorttime precipitation estimation can reflect well the variation in precipitation processes, while the longterm precipitation estimations can estimate the amount of precipitation more accurately.

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伍靜,劉黎平,尤衛紅,崔哲虎.應用雷達拼圖數據估測降水試驗[J].氣象科技,2010,38(2):175~181

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  • 收稿日期:2009-03-04
  • 定稿日期:2009-04-23
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