臺風“鳳凰”和“諾瑞絲”路徑與降水分布對比分析
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國家自然科學基金項目(40875068)、教育部科技創新工程重大項目培育資金項目(708051)、溫州市科技計劃項目(2008S0030)和浙江省氣象科技開放研究專項(Kf2008004)共同資助


Analysis of Typhoons “FungWong” and “Norris” with Similar Tracks and Different Rainfall Patterns
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    摘要:

    臺風“鳳凰”(0808)和“諾瑞絲”(8012)路徑相似,但降水分布不同,“鳳凰”暴雨分布在路徑左右兩側,而“諾瑞絲”暴雨分布在路徑左側。文章從濕位渦和垂直風切變角度對這兩個路徑相似臺風暴雨進行了診斷分析。結果表明:無論是“鳳凰”,還是“諾瑞絲”臺風暴雨與濕位渦和垂直風切變都有較一致對應關系,強降水位于垂直風切變矢量左側,垂直風切變矢量與移動路徑呈不同夾角時,強降水分布在移動路徑不同方位。濕位渦正壓項(MPV1)負值區和斜壓項(MPV2)正值區相疊加對應強降水落區,而且疊加區內MPV2越大,降水強度也越強。因此,在實際臺風預報中,可以結合濕位渦和垂直風切變綜合分析來提高預測強降水落區準確性。

    Abstract:

    The Tropical Cyclones (TC)with similar tracks generally have similar rainstorm patterns, but Typhoons FungWong (0808) and Norris (8012) are exceptions, which have similar tracks but different precipitation distribution. The rainstorms of FungWong distributed in two sides of the track, but those of Norris distributed in the left side of its track. The typhoon rainstorms are diagnosed and analyzed by means of moist potential vorticity (MPV) and vertical wind shear analysis. It is found that, regardless of FungWong or Norris, MPV and vertical wind shear of both have the consistent corresponding relationship with typhoon rainstorms. The strong precipitation occurred on the vertical wind shear left side, and when vertical wind shear vectors and TC track angled differently, there occurred different heavy rainfall distributions along the TC track. The overlapped areas of negative MPV1 and positive MPV2 are usually severe rainfall areas, and the greater the positive value of MPV2 in the overlapped area, the stronger the intensity of rainstorm. Therefore, in the typhoon forecasting practice, the accuracy of rainfall location forecast can be improved by using the comprehensive analysis of MPV and vertical wind shear.

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余貞壽,閔錦忠,樓麗銀,冀春曉,陳宣淼.臺風“鳳凰”和“諾瑞絲”路徑與降水分布對比分析[J].氣象科技,2010,38(1):32~36

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  • 收稿日期:2008-02-15
  • 定稿日期:2009-07-10
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