大氣電場資料在雷電預警中應用
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公益性行業科研專項(GYHY200806014)和江蘇省氣象災害重點實驗室(南京信息工程大學)項目(KLME050101)資助


Application of Atmospheric Electric Field Data in Lightning Warning
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    摘要:

    通過分析浙江省嵊縣地區2007年6~10月12次強雷暴過程的電場觀測資料,并結合該省閃電定位資料,發現當雷暴云移近電場儀測站時,在測站的防護區內(距測站10 km半徑范圍內),閃電發生前的電場會出現快變抖動現象,并且快變抖動和閃電的發生具有01化對應關系,即當有電場的快變抖動出現并且在一定時間內電場值數次達到一定閾值時,電場值會隨著時間增加而達到防護區內閃電出現的強度,很少有出現電場快變抖動而沒有產生閃電的情況,利用多元回歸技術提出雷電預警方法,將12次雷暴過程數據作為預報資料,得出預報方程及電場最佳預警參數。分析結果表明,當閃電集中發生在距電場儀10~15 km范圍內,并達到電場儀預警條件時,為最佳預警時間,預警準確率達到73%。

    Abstract:

    Through the analysis of 12 typical thunderstorm processes around Shengxian County of Zhejiang Province recorded by the atmospheric electric field instrument from June to October 2007, in combination with the data recorded by lightning position finders, it is found that when thunderstorm clouds approach the station with an electric field instrument, there will occur the phenomenon of fastchanging dither before the occurrence of lightning within the protection range of the station (10 km around the station), which has the 01 relationship with lightning. That is, when the fastchanging dither in the electric field appears and the strength of the electric field reaches a certain threshold several times in a period of time, the electricfield strength will increase to achieve the intensity necessary for the appearance of lightning within the protection range, and there is little circumstances that the appearance of fastchanging dither is not accompanied by the appearance of lightning. The forecast equation and most appropriate electricfield parameters are given, and the method of thunderstorm warning is presented with the multivariate regression method. The results show that it is the best time to make warning when lightning strokes are concentrated within a range of 10 to 15 km around the atmospheric electric field instrument if the conditions of warning for the electric field instrument are satisfied, with the accuracy being up to about 73%.

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柴瑞,王振會,肖穩安,楊仲江,張慧良,張衛斌.大氣電場資料在雷電預警中應用[J].氣象科技,2009,37(6):724~728

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  • 收稿日期:2008-07-10
  • 定稿日期:2009-01-07
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