GRAPES紫外線(UV)數值預報
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中國氣象局多軌道項目“大氣成分數值預報業務系統建設”、973項目(2006CB403703)、中國氣象科學研究院基本科研業務專項(2008Z04)、公益性行業科研業務專項(GYHY200706036)及十一五國家科技支撐計劃(2006BAC02B02)共同資助


GRAPES Numerical Ultraviolet Prediction
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    摘要:

    應用GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System)模式中的Goddard短波輻射方案,創建了紫外線數值預報系統(GRAPESUV)。介紹了Goddard 短波輻射方案,給出了GRAPESUV 系統的運行和個例分析。研究結果表明,紫外線指數(UVI)除了與緯度、地形和日變化有關外,還與云的分布以及天氣形勢密切相關,GRAPES模式中云的微物理方案對UV預報有較大的影響,UVI在晴空和對流云降水地區的強烈反差是UVI的重要特征。在個例試驗中應用了臭氧總量預報模式,通過T213模式為化學輸送模式提供氣象背景,利用衛星資料同化技術建立臭氧的初始場,預報大氣臭氧總量。應用國際上通常采用的臨界成功指數(CSI)對2007年夏季北京和上海UV預報進行統計檢驗。北京和上海24 h紫外線強度等級為強和很強的CSI分別為0.625和0.780,接近同樣方法的美國檢驗結果0.677。該系統從2006年3月起在中國氣象局大氣成分觀測與服務中心的業務系統中正常運行,并在大氣成分中心網站上發布UVI和紫外線強度等級預報,并提醒公眾采取合適的方法保護自身免受UV的過度輻射。

    Abstract:

    The system for numerical ultraviolet (UV) prediction (GRAPESUV) using Goddard shortwave radiative scheme with GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System) is established. The Goddard shortwave radiative parameterization scheme and the executing of the GRAPESUV system are described, and case studies are conducted. It is shown that the effect of cloud microphysical processes in GRAPES on UV forecasts is important; the improvement of the cloud microphysical scheme make UV forecasts based on weather possibly; ultraviolet index (UVI) correlates to cloud distribution and weather situation; the strong contrast of UVI between clear sky and convective cloudy areas is an important feature of UVI. An application experiment of total ozone prediction was conducted using T213 to provide the meteorological background for the chemical transport model and using the satellite data assimilation technology to establish the initial fields. The UVI forecasts for Beijing and Shanghai in the summer of 2007 are verified statistically using the Critical Success Index (CSI) in common use internationally. The CSIs corresponding to the high and very high exposures of UV grades in 24 hours for Beijing and Shanghai are 0.625 and 0.780 respectively, approaching to the results of verification for United States with the same method. The GRAPESUV system has been running on the operational IBM computer system at the Center for Atmosphere Watch and Services (CAWAS), the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA), since March 2006, and has issued forecasts for UVI and UV exposure grades to remind the public of overexposure to UV radiation at the CMA/CAWAS website.

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沈元芳,劉洪利,劉煜,王宏,王亞強,張小玲,周廣強. GRAPES紫外線(UV)數值預報[J].氣象科技,2009,37(6):697~704

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  • 收稿日期:2009-08-10
  • 定稿日期:2009-08-30
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