嘉興市夏季水泥地面溫度特征分析與預報
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浙江省2007QN006青年科技專項和嘉興市氣象局(200604)課題“不同下墊面氣溫變化與城市氣象服務研究”資助


Analysis and Forecasting of Summer CementSurface Temperature in Jiaxing
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    摘要:

    對嘉興市2006、2007年夏季(6~9月)生態觀測場水泥地面溫度與同步觀測的百葉箱自動觀測空氣溫度資料進行統計分析,結果表明:夏季水泥地溫的平均溫度、極端最高溫度均與百葉箱溫度在日、月、季同步變化,但差異特點明顯,最大差異表現在夏季日最高溫度上;夏季24 h各時次的溫度變化與百葉箱溫度比較,水泥地溫度具有極端最高溫度出現早、高溫時間短、差異大、早晨最低溫度接近并略偏高的特性;夏季水泥地面最高溫度與日照、降水、風向風速、相對濕度等要素密切相關。采用最優子集回歸方案和卡爾曼二次濾波預報方案對水泥地面最高溫度作定量預報輸出,結合不同天氣(晴天、多云到陰、降水)類型給予不同的人工修正,能在實際專業預報服務中取得較好的效果,可提高夏季城市專項氣象服務水平。

    Abstract:

    The statistical relationship of cementsurface temperature and temperature observed simultaneously by the automatic temperature recorder in screen at Jiaxing Station in the summers of 2006 and 2007 (June to September) is analyzed. The results indicate that the average and extreme maximum summer cementsurface temperatures change simultaneously with the temperature in screen at the scales of day, month and quarter, but there is obvious difference between them, which is mainly manifested in the maximum temperature. Comparing with the temperature in screen, the cementsurface temperature has such features as earlier appearing of extreme maximum temperature, shorter high temperature episodes, greater difference, minimum temperature in morning close to temperature in screen or slightly higher. The cementsurface maximum temperature in summer is related closely to sunshine duration, precipitation, wind direction and wind speed, relative humidity, etc. By means of the second Kalman filter and Optimal subset regression, the quantitative prediction outputs of the cementsurface maximum temperature are given and revised artificially according to different weather situations (sunny, cloudy, precipitation). Those equations proved satisfactory in accuracy in forecasting operation and can help improve the specialized meteorological services.

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范玉芬,張瑞萍,吳明江,周秋林.嘉興市夏季水泥地面溫度特征分析與預報[J].氣象科技,2009,37(6):693~696

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  • 收稿日期:2008-12-04
  • 定稿日期:2009-04-08
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